118-120 Water Ave · St. Michael, PA 15951

$79,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

6,970 sqft lot $48/sqft · 15% below area Est $94k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

LET'S GET MOVING TO FOREST HILLS SCHOOLS. .. this duplex in St. Michael would be an ideal addition to your real estate portfolio. Each of the units include living room, eat-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms, and full bath. Oil forced air heat, 100 amp electrical, and electric hot water heaters. Decks overlooks large, level yard. Off-street parking, storage shed, lower taxes, and much more to see. For more details, to receive your tour packet, and to schedule your personal tour, call today!

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Oil heating (fuel source)
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range / Oven
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: Each unit with 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Oil heating (shared or individual depending on unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($615/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Forest Hills SD (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #293 of 539 in PA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $80k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.44%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,578
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -14.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $13,145
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $42,586
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15951

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $74	+0% $51	+5% $29	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $2	+0% $51	+5% $101	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $72	base $51	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 483-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $79,900 Active 483-char remark
3. 2007-09-18
   soldstatus $22,500
4. 1997-07-01
   soldstatus $16,000
5. 1994-12-01
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 147.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$5,924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable loss: −$405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Hills SD
• NCES district ID: 4209940
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,950
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4452
• State rank: #293 of 539 in PA

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, PA
• City population: 550
• Population (ZIP): 550

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+432.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $79,900 CSMLS
• 2007-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $319 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.