1210 Pinebend Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1993 5.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home in need of repairs but on large 5 acre lot. Great price bring offers. Cash offers only please.

Key facts

• Detached workshop
• Open living area
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL FLORIDA LANDSCAPE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Zoning: RC; Lot size approximately 5.06 acres
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Tax year 2025 information available (amount not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer: other/unspecified; Utilities: other/unspecified
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Home faces south
• Construction: Construction materials not specified; Roof type not specified; Foundation present (details not specified); Built on approximately 5.06 acres
• Exterior features: Exterior features present (details not specified); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances present (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring type not specified
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating system present (details not specified); Cooling system present (details not specified)
• Interior features: Various interior finishes (details not specified)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with unspecified features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-309/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $225k implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,793 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,568
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-56,725
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,593/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $220,345

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $38	+0% $-26	+5% $-89	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-103	+0% $-26	+5% $52	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $31	base $-26	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $224,900 Active
3. 2010-03-15
   soldstatus $54,000 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Mobile home in need of repairs but on large 5 acre lot. Great price bring offers. Cash offers only please.

4. 2009-12-07
   listed $59,995 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Mobile home in need of repairs but on large 5 acre lot. Great price bring offers. Cash offers only please.

5. 2004-08-17
   soldstatus $88,400
6. 2001-10-10
   soldstatus $75,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,593 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,593 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,593
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+199.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-15 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-07 Listed $59,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $88,400 Public Records
• 2001-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $75,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,593 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.