629 Lopez St · Taft Southwest, TX 78390

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 317 Days on market

Built 1964 3,897 sqft lot $79/sqft · at area comps Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of natural light and updates in the bathroom and kitchen make this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home one you do not want to miss! Tile throughout, ceiling fans, central heat and a/c, fenced yard; very well maintained. Call your favorite Realtor for a tour.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Natural light
• Well maintained

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• UPDATES IN THE BATHROOM
• UPDATES IN THE KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• WELL MAINTAINED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,311 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Taft ISD (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #727 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.03%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,735
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -0.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Rubio St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,273 (-8%)	16mo	$159,900	$126	43
425 Ash St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-14%)	20mo	$49,900	$42	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $32,562
• Equity at exit: $58,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $91,720
• Equity at exit: $98,103

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78390

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 3rd St Taft, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	13d	1	0.66mi
508 Tutt Ave Taft, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$1,150	$1.23	43d	1	1.28mi
620 Reynolds Ave Taft, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,900	$1.28	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 298 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $109,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Lots of natural light and updates in the bathroom and kitchen make this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home one you do not want to miss! Tile throughout, ceiling fans, central heat and a/c, fenced yard; very well maintained. Call your favorite Realtor for a tour.

18. 2025-09-13
    price $114,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Lots of natural light and updates in the bathroom and kitchen make this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home one you do not want to miss! Tile throughout, ceiling fans, central heat and a/c, fenced yard; very well maintained. Call your favorite Realtor for a tour.

19. 2025-08-01
    listed $120,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Lots of natural light and updates in the bathroom and kitchen make this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home one you do not want to miss! Tile throughout, ceiling fans, central heat and a/c, fenced yard; very well maintained. Call your favorite Realtor for a tour.

20. 2021-02-01
    historical
21. 2020-10-07
    status Active
22. 2020-09-28
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2020-09-25
    price $114,000
24. 2020-02-27
    listed $124,000 Active
25. 2017-09-30
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$518/yr (+$43/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$131
• After-tax cash flow: $1,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taft ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842060
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,110
• Composite: 20.29/100
• National rank: #8618
• State rank: #727 of 826 in TX

Livability — Taft Southwest

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1311
• US rank: #22671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taft Southwest, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,620

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 52% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.44%
• Current HPI: 123.4461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+214.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $109,900 CBMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $114,900 CBMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $120,000 CBMLS
• 2021-02-01 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2020-10-07 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2020-09-28 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2020-09-25 Price Changed $114,000 CBMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $124,000 CBMLS
• 2017-09-30 Listed $35,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.