17 Newport Ave · Buffalo, NY 14216

$207,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1948 5,687 sqft lot Est $295k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom Cape Cod offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. With a flexible layout, the first-floor features two bedrooms and a full bath, while the second floor includes two additional bedrooms and a convenient half bath perfect for added privacy or a growing household. The home includes a living room, kitchen, and full basement, providing plenty of space and potential for updates or customization. Replacement windows throughout the entire house. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage and a lovely size backyard. Whether you’re looking to flip, renovate, or personalize, this property is full of possibilities and ready fo

Key facts

• Full basement
• Replacement windows
• Lovely size backyard

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• LOVELY SIZE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,496 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Newport Ave	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$206,000	$172	100
65 Fairbanks Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$283,500	$236	78
50 Byron Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,258 (+5%)	1mo	$280,000	$223	72
101 Wendover Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$271	69
72 Marquette Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+2%)	0mo	$278,000	$227	64
135 Fayette Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (+6%)	1mo	$290,000	$228	62
185 Fayette Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-5%)	1mo	$280,000	$246	60
16 Deumant	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	0mo	$285,000	$264	60
363 Wardman Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,218 (+2%)	1mo	$315,000	$259	60
10 Frontenac Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,270 (+6%)	2mo	$399,000	$314	53
32 Parkside Ct	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,292 (+8%)	1mo	$350,000	$271	48
72 Charleston Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$150,000	$112	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,080
• Equity at exit: $30,864

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,557
• Equity at exit: $17,898

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14216

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $207,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 Taunton Pl Unit Lowet Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,700	$1.38	14d	1	0.22mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	3d	1	0.55mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	14d	1	0.55mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	17d	1	0.92mi
77 Lovering Ave #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	0.98mi
140 Commonwealth Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,500	$2.80	43d	1	0.99mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	1d	1	1.04mi
79 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	23d	1	1.05mi
88 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1355	$1,695	$1.25	20d	1	1.07mi
244 Hartwell Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	3d	1	1.11mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	1d	10	1.21mi
2522 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,625	$1.41	1d	1	1.22mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	14d	1	1.22mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	14d	1	1.25mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	14d	1	1.25mi
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	1d	1	1.40mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.45mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $207,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,432/yr (+$119/mo · 226.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$141
• After-tax cash flow: $3,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,849
• Household income: $69,629
• Rent vs Own: 54.4% rent · 45.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1831.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -264.53%
• Current HPI: 421.1138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $207,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.