4606 Winchester Dr · Kettering, OH 45429

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1957 7,405 sqft lot $183/sqft · 12% below area Est $216k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover an exceptional opportunity in Dayton, where comfort and convenience converge in this charming single-family residence. This inviting home offers a serene retreat with a thoughtful layout designed for everyday living. Experience the ease of a single-story dwelling, providing seamless transitions throughout its well-appointed spaces. The property is ideally situated to offer a balanced lifestyle, combining peaceful residential surroundings with accessibility to local amenities. This delightful residence features three comfortable bedrooms and one full bathroom, creating a cozy and functional environment. The living area spans 1040 square feet, offering ample room for relaxation and daily activities. Step outside to enjoy the expansive deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining, quiet mornings, or simply soaking in the surroundings. The generous lot size of 0.17 acres provides a private outdoor oasis, offering plenty of space for gardening or recreation. Nestled in a desirable Dayton neighborhood, this home is more than just a place to live; it's a gateway to a vibrant community. The area offers a blend of suburban tranquility and convenient access to the city's offerings. This property represents an incredible chance to embrace a lifestyle of comfort and ease in a sought-after location.

Key facts

• Vibrant community
• Expansive deck
• Generous lot size

Tags

• SINGLE STORY DWELLING
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR OASIS
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• VIBRANT COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.4% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,713
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -11.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Henrich Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+0%)	8mo	$212,000	$203	89
320 Orangewood Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	12mo	$200,000	$192	87
404 Orangewood Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	13mo	$215,000	$207	85
401 Henrich Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	13mo	$215,000	$207	84
4517 Winchester Dr	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$158,900	$153	83
804 Hollendale Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,053 (+1%)	2mo	$251,000	$238	69
4135 Lefevre Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	10mo	$248,000	$230	60
4433 Ackerman Blvd	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,134 (+9%)	1mo	$225,611	$199	56
516 Oakview Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,138 (+9%)	3mo	$230,000	$202	49
4107 Lefevre Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,094 (+5%)	19mo	$245,000	$224	43
908 Hollendale Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	16mo	$243,600	$218	40
930 Lawnwood Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,122 (+8%)	17mo	$202,000	$180	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,076
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,029
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45429

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,401/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,719

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Henrich Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,745	$1.68	2d	1	0.06mi
401 Orangewood Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,745	$1.68	43d	1	0.07mi
4421 Grayson St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,745	$1.68	23d	1	0.17mi
521 Oakview Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1404	$1,995	$1.42	43d	1	0.74mi
508 Schuyler Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,075	$1.85	2d	1	0.87mi
4354 Meadowcroft Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1155	$1,600	$1.39	2d	1	1.30mi
1532 Lynnfield Dr Unit 1530 Kettering, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $189,900 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   price $189,900 1310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1310 chars)

   Discover an exceptional opportunity in Dayton, where comfort and convenience converge in this charming single-family residence. This inviting home offers a serene retreat with a thoughtful layout designed for everyday living. Experience the ease of a single-story dwelling, providing seamless transitions throughout its well-appointed spaces. The property is ideally situated to offer a balanced lifestyle, combining peaceful residential surroundings with accessibility to local amenities. This delightful residence features three comfortable bedrooms and one full bathroom, creating a cozy and functional environment. The living area spans 1040 square feet, offering ample room for relaxation and daily activities. Step outside to enjoy the expansive deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining, quiet mornings, or simply soaking in the surroundings. The generous lot size of 0.17 acres provides a private outdoor oasis, offering plenty of space for gardening or recreation. Nestled in a desirable Dayton neighborhood, this home is more than just a place to live; it's a gateway to a vibrant community. The area offers a blend of suburban tranquility and convenient access to the city's offerings. This property represents an incredible chance to embrace a lifestyle of comfort and ease in a sought-after location.

7. 2026-05-01
   price $194,900 1310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1310 chars)

   Discover an exceptional opportunity in Dayton, where comfort and convenience converge in this charming single-family residence. This inviting home offers a serene retreat with a thoughtful layout designed for everyday living. Experience the ease of a single-story dwelling, providing seamless transitions throughout its well-appointed spaces. The property is ideally situated to offer a balanced lifestyle, combining peaceful residential surroundings with accessibility to local amenities. This delightful residence features three comfortable bedrooms and one full bathroom, creating a cozy and functional environment. The living area spans 1040 square feet, offering ample room for relaxation and daily activities. Step outside to enjoy the expansive deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining, quiet mornings, or simply soaking in the surroundings. The generous lot size of 0.17 acres provides a private outdoor oasis, offering plenty of space for gardening or recreation. Nestled in a desirable Dayton neighborhood, this home is more than just a place to live; it's a gateway to a vibrant community. The area offers a blend of suburban tranquility and convenient access to the city's offerings. This property represents an incredible chance to embrace a lifestyle of comfort and ease in a sought-after location.

8. 2026-04-10
   listed $199,900 Active 1310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1310 chars)

   Discover an exceptional opportunity in Dayton, where comfort and convenience converge in this charming single-family residence. This inviting home offers a serene retreat with a thoughtful layout designed for everyday living. Experience the ease of a single-story dwelling, providing seamless transitions throughout its well-appointed spaces. The property is ideally situated to offer a balanced lifestyle, combining peaceful residential surroundings with accessibility to local amenities. This delightful residence features three comfortable bedrooms and one full bathroom, creating a cozy and functional environment. The living area spans 1040 square feet, offering ample room for relaxation and daily activities. Step outside to enjoy the expansive deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining, quiet mornings, or simply soaking in the surroundings. The generous lot size of 0.17 acres provides a private outdoor oasis, offering plenty of space for gardening or recreation. Nestled in a desirable Dayton neighborhood, this home is more than just a place to live; it's a gateway to a vibrant community. The area offers a blend of suburban tranquility and convenient access to the city's offerings. This property represents an incredible chance to embrace a lifestyle of comfort and ease in a sought-after location.

9. 2024-01-02
   soldstatus $25,157,500
10. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus $111,000
11. 2021-05-20
    soldstatus $111,000 Closed 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Calling all investors!! SO much potential offered by this 3 bedroom 1 bath Kettering ranch complete with an ATTACHED garage! Being sold AS-IS and needs extensive work. Front living room plus an open concept kitchen/dining area with access to the backyard. 3 spacious bedrooms and full hall bath. * * AS-IS SALE * *

12. 2021-05-20
    soldstatus $111,000 Sold 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Calling all investors!! SO much potential offered by this 3 bedroom 1 bath Kettering ranch complete with an ATTACHED garage! Being sold AS-IS and needs extensive work. Front living room plus an open concept kitchen/dining area with access to the backyard. 3 spacious bedrooms and full hall bath. * * AS-IS SALE * *

13. 2021-05-06
    status Pending 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Calling all investors!! SO much potential offered by this 3 bedroom 1 bath Kettering ranch complete with an ATTACHED garage! Being sold AS-IS and needs extensive work. Front living room plus an open concept kitchen/dining area with access to the backyard. 3 spacious bedrooms and full hall bath. * * AS-IS SALE * *

14. 2021-05-05
    listed $109,900 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Calling all investors!! SO much potential offered by this 3 bedroom 1 bath Kettering ranch complete with an ATTACHED garage! Being sold AS-IS and needs extensive work. Front living room plus an open concept kitchen/dining area with access to the backyard. 3 spacious bedrooms and full hall bath. * * AS-IS SALE * *

15. 2002-06-24
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,401 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,401 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,401
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #922

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 73,116
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 26,347
• Household income: $80,210
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 889.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.24%
• Current HPI: 274.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+146.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $194,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,157,500 Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-20 Sold (MLS) $111,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-05-20 Sold (MLS) $111,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-05-06 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2021-05-05 Listed $109,900 Dayton MLS
• 2002-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,401 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.