340 NE Crest St #5 · Sublimity, OR 97385

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1972 $130/sqft · 411% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 2-bdrm, 1-bath home in Sublimity Oregon. Located in a desirable 55+ community just 12 miles east of Salem in Marion County. This move-in ready home features modern updates throughout, including durable laminate flooring, a bright interior, and an efficient layout designed for easy, low-maintenance living. Enjoy added convenience with a covered carport and private storage shed, offering ample space for parking and organization. Ideally situated, with easy access to shopping, dining, and healthcare, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience—perfect for those seeking affordable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming 55+ community.

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.4% in Sublimity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#102 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.65%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $13,699
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 410.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 NE Crest St #2	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (+11%)	12mo	$14,000	$23	67
340 NE Crest St	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (+11%)	12mo	$14,000	$23	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $42,409
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $106,215
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97385

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $75,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Updated 2-bdrm, 1-bath home in Sublimity Oregon. Located in a desirable 55+ community just 12 miles east of Salem in Marion County. This move-in ready home features modern updates throughout, including durable laminate flooring, a bright interior, and an efficient layout designed for easy, low-maintenance living. Enjoy added convenience with a covered carport and private storage shed, offering ample space for parking and organization. Ideally situated, with easy access to shopping, dining, and healthcare, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience—perfect for those seeking affordable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming 55+ community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $7,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Santiam SD 29J
• NCES district ID: 4100020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,619
• Composite: 63.96/100
• National rank: #584
• State rank: #1 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sublimity

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #5418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sublimity, OR
• Population (ZIP): 3,876

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.76%
• Current HPI: 303.7987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $75,000 RMLS