4371 Village Oak Ln · Pace, FL 32571

$269,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2022 3,049 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Colors and finishes may vary from photos. Contact listing agent for specific color schemes. WELCOME HOME! This BRAND NEW 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Townhome is ready for YOU! Enjoy low maintenance living in our Beautiful Woodlands Neighborhood. This townhome has a very spacious kitchen with a huge pantry! Stainless Steel built in microwave, dishwasher and smooth glass top oven/range is included! Your granite countertops in the kitchen pair perfectly with a massive farmhouse sink, modern backsplash and very convenient pot filler! We've also included a USB plug in the kitchen for your charging convenience! Your spacious half bath is right across from the kitchen along with your breakfast bar, dining room and family room! Lawn care and trash included in HOA

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Dishwasher
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption applied
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee (approximately $1,000) covering association and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; County-maintained road access
• Home design: Attached property; Two levels; Resale home
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Interior lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Built-in microwave; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom approximately 16.3 x 14.2 (first level)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Bathroom finishes not updated
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Office/Study; Blinds and drapery with rods; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,398 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,619
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,989
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,075/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,251

Max offer price $248,416

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-40	+0% $-117	+5% $-193	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-200	+0% $-117	+5% $-33	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-48	base $-117	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5157 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.16mi
4413 Oak Vista Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,354	$2.37	14d	18	0.19mi
5240 Peach Dr Unit NA Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,175	$1.21	24d	1	0.23mi
4383 Winged Elm Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	0.24mi
4836 Covenant Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,875	$1.18	14d	1	0.26mi
5061 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1581	$1,850	$1.17	24d	1	0.29mi
4328 Tiger Oak Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1347	$1,850	$1.37	24d	1	0.33mi
5574 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,900	$1.29	24d	1	0.33mi
4384 White Cedar Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	0.37mi
4407 White Cedar Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$1,925	$1.05	24d	1	0.40mi
5418 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,100	$1.30	24d	1	0.43mi
5508 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,500	$1.42	24d	1	0.48mi
4025 Brittany Ln Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,725	$1.23	22d	1	0.58mi
5320 Cornwall Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,200	$1.29	14d	1	0.91mi
4185 Pendragon Cir Unit Alisha walker Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	14d	1	1.22mi
3863 Pendragon Cir , FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,500	$1.58	24d	1	1.22mi
4167 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	14d	1	1.24mi
3984 Pendragon Cir Unit 1 Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	22d	1	1.27mi
4933 Bell Ridge Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,437	$1.66	14d	8	1.30mi
4051 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1530	$1,800	$1.18	14d	1	1.33mi
4067 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	14d	1	1.33mi
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: trashlandscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $269,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,075
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $66/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $269,000 PARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $275,000 PARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $280,000 PARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $285,000 PARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $290,000 PARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $249,950 PARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $249,950 NAMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listed $249,950 PARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listed $249,950 NAMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Listed $249,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+47.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,075 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.