1388 Mallard Road Rd · Wilson, TX 79381

$219,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 1.05 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for peaceful country living while still being just minutes from the New Home School District and Lubbock, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy a spacious wrap-around porch, the perfect spot to take in those beautiful West Texas sunrises and sunsets. Inside, the bright open-concept layout features large windows, a spacious living area, all GE appliances, and a large kitchen island that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a relaxing primary suite with a large soaking tub, double vanities, and separate his-and-hers closets. The unique ceilings add character and give the home a modern farmhouse style that feels both trendy and timeless. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities to create your own country retreat, whether that's adding a shop, garden, or outdoor entertaining space. Best of all, the home is less than a year old and still comes with transferable warranties, giving the next owner added confidence and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Large soaking tub
• Primary suite

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• DOUBLE VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,132 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Tahoka ISD (town): math 51% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #313 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,799 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.51%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $66,120
• Equity at exit: $101,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $180,336
• Equity at exit: $157,304

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,999 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,999 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,999 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,999 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $219,999 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    If you're looking for peaceful country living while still being just minutes from the New Home School District and Lubbock, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy a spacious wrap-around porch, the perfect spot to take in those beautiful West Texas sunrises and sunsets. Inside, the bright open-concept layout features large windows, a spacious living area, all GE appliances, and a large kitchen island that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a relaxing primary suite with a large soaking tub, double vanities, and separate his-and-hers closets. The unique ceilings add character and give the home a modern farmhouse style that feels both trendy and timeless. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities to create your own country retreat, whether that's adding a shop, garden, or outdoor entertaining space. Best of all, the home is less than a year old and still comes with transferable warranties, giving the next owner added confidence and peace of mind.

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $239,999 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    If you're looking for peaceful country living while still being just minutes from the New Home School District and Lubbock, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy a spacious wrap-around porch, the perfect spot to take in those beautiful West Texas sunrises and sunsets. Inside, the bright open-concept layout features large windows, a spacious living area, all GE appliances, and a large kitchen island that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a relaxing primary suite with a large soaking tub, double vanities, and separate his-and-hers closets. The unique ceilings add character and give the home a modern farmhouse style that feels both trendy and timeless. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities to create your own country retreat, whether that's adding a shop, garden, or outdoor entertaining space. Best of all, the home is less than a year old and still comes with transferable warranties, giving the next owner added confidence and peace of mind.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $250,000
19. 2026-03-09
    price $259,999
20. 2026-03-09
    price $269,999
21. 2026-01-28
    price $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $3,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$915
• After-tax cash flow: $6,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation, well-maintained exterior, and a good interior with modern appliances. The wrap-around porch and open-concept layout make it a great option for those looking for peaceful country living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Improves curb appeal and functionality
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoka ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,282
• Composite: 36.63/100
• National rank: #4619
• State rank: #313 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1132
• US rank: #20012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $219,999 LARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $239,999 LARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $250,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $259,999 LARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $269,999 LARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $250,000 LARMLS