914 Capracotta Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$225,690

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · Land · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $222,304 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,700
• Equity at exit: $33,651

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,837
• Equity at exit: $19,514

Cash invested: $63,193 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,184
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $225,690

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $281	+0% $217	+5% $154	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $129	+0% $217	+5% $306	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $275	base $217	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,422
• Closing costs: $6,771
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.16mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $225,690
3. 2026-04-16
   price $229,890
4. 2026-04-13
   price $234,090
5. 2026-04-10
   listed $238,990 Active
6. 2026-04-10
   historical
7. 2026-03-20
   price $238,990
8. 2026-03-20
   listed $303,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,221/yr (+$268/mo · 354.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,642
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$1,128
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,566
• Taxable loss: −$1,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $2,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $225,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $229,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $234,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $303,990 HARMLS