3031 Apache St · Willis, TX 77378

$217,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2020 6,420 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $224k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in the heart of Willis. This well-maintained property features an open floor plan with a seamless kitchen, dining, and living area—ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and natural light. Primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a whole-home water filtration system, spacious backyard, and covered front porch. Conveniently located near Lake Conroe, schools, shopping, and I-45 for easy commuting. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone seeking a comfortable home with modern convenience.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious backyard
• 6,420 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,446 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,838
• List price: $217,999
• Delta: -2.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15123 Arrowhead Loop E	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	1mo	$218,800	$182	90
115 Indian Creek Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+1%)	6mo	$217,000	$174	85
15119 Arrowhead Loop Rd E	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+5%)	3mo	$232,600	$179	84
3507 Sam Houston Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-0%)	1mo	$219,999	$179	80
15451 Arrowhead Loop Dr W	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,324 (+7%)	3mo	$219,900	$166	74
2442 Mohawk Bnd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+6%)	4mo	$229,900	$176	72
15255 Austin Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-3%)	3mo	$200,000	$167	71
14951 Colt Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$175	71
15113 Austin	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+12%)	1mo	$239,900	$173	63
14882 Big Springs Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+9%)	4mo	$228,888	$171	63
3975 Sam Houston Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,341 (+9%)	1mo	$219,600	$164	55
3435 Sam Houston Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+12%)	5mo	$250,000	$181	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-45,285
• Equity at exit: $32,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-61,647
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $200,196

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15309 Coaltown Rd Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,445	$1.20	24d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,999 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $217,999 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $217,999 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $217,999 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $217,999 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $217,999 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,999 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,999 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,999 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,999 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    listed $217,999 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in the heart of Willis. This well-maintained property features an open floor plan with a seamless kitchen, dining, and living area—ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and natural light. Primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a whole-home water filtration system, spacious backyard, and covered front porch. Conveniently located near Lake Conroe, schools, shopping, and I-45 for easy commuting. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone seeking a comfortable home with modern convenience.

15. 2026-03-31
    historical
16. 2025-10-23
    listed $218,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,989 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$4,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $217,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $218,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,316 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.