518 Wellon Ave · Bithlo, FL 32833

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2017 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

518 Wellon Ave Orlando FL 3283, Country Living Meets Modern Comfort in Orlando! Fully Fenced 1-Acre Homestead Escape to your own private, 1-acre paradise with this beautiful, newer Skyline "Irondale" model manufactured home. Boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this property perfectly blends modern residential living with the freedom of a country lifestyle. Strategically zoned A-2 for farm animals, Step inside this spacious Skyline split floorplan designed with efficiency and comfort in mind. The home features upgraded, extra insulation throughout to keep your energy bills low, along with a newly updated AC unit. The central AC system is a reliable 5 years old. Rest easy knowing t

Key facts

• Fully fenced 1-acre
• Three private ponds
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED 1-ACRE
• ZONED FOR FARM ANIMALS
• THREE PRIVATE PONDS
• PRIVATE WELL AND SEPTIC
• PREMIUM WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• TWO FUNCTIONAL STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Property zoned A-2; One well and one septic on property; Farm-friendly (listed farm types include aquaculture, cattle, chicken, horse)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Guest parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-Speed internet available; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Skyline IronDale model); One story; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block, concrete perimeter and crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Outdoor shower; Private mailbox; Storage; Barn(s), shed(s) and kennel/dog run on property; Chain link and wire fencing; Mature landscaping with trees; Cleared, level and paved lot; 1-acre lot (approx.); 10-foot-high side fencing (per directions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Water filtration system; Water purifier; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Bithlo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#808 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 509 students, 50% FRL); Corner Lake Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 841 students, 54% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $295k implies a 638% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,908 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,031
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,251
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32833

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $264,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-91	+0% $-174	+5% $-258	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-253	+0% $-174	+5% $-95	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-99	base $-174	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17778 Caudel Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 689-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,352/yr (+$113/mo · 123.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $-307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bithlo

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #19212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bithlo, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,389
• Household income: $98,733
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 206.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.65%
• Current HPI: 321.412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+637.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-09 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-25 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.