15018 Mudstone Pl · San Antonio, TX 78112

$168,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $125/sqft · 7% above area Est $158k · 7% over $106/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($448/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $889 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-279 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,929 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,499
• List price: $168,999
• Delta: 6.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6729 Marble Rdg	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+0%)	0mo	$140,999	$104	93
6808 Marble Rdg	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+0%)	1mo	$143,999	$106	93
6820 Marble Rdg	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+0%)	2mo	$146,999	$108	92
6844 Marble Rdg	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+0%)	0mo	$139,999	$103	92
6832 Marble Rdg	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+0%)	2mo	$169,999	$125	91
6630 Fiore Gdn	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$188,999	$140	85
15103 Azzurro Stone	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$177,999	$120	76
15102 Azzurro Stone	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-6%)	1mo	$177,999	$141	74
6725 Marble Rdg	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-12%)	0mo	$146,999	$124	74
6837 Chert Chase	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-12%)	0mo	$130,999	$110	72
6813 Chert Chase	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-12%)	1mo	$136,999	$115	72
14805 Mudstone Pl	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$177,999	$120	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,785
• Equity at exit: $47,681

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,834
• Equity at exit: $56,216

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $168,999

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $96	+0% $37	+5% $-21	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-28	+0% $37	+5% $103	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $80	base $37	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6933 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,695	$1.06	13d	1	0.31mi
6948 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,600	$1.11	3d	1	0.35mi
6933 Biotite Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	11d	1	0.39mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,700	$1.00	16d	1	0.95mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,700	$1.00	3d	1	0.95mi
14651 Latigo Loop Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,750	$1.03	3d	1	1.06mi
7663 Stud Dr Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	3d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $168,999 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $167,999 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $173,999 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-21
   price $181,899 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-17
   listed $183,999 New 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $1,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern layout with room to grow and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Painting — Refreshing the paint can give the home a fresh look and improve its curb appeal
• Both Lighting — Upgrading the lighting can make the home more inviting and safer
• Resale Appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers
• Rental Decor — Updating the decor can make the home more appealing to renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Painting — Refreshing the paint can give the home a fresh look and improve its curb appeal ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading the lighting can make the home more inviting and safer ↑
• Resale Appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Rental Decor — Updating the decor can make the home more appealing to renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $168,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $167,999 LERA
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $173,999 LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $181,899 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $183,999 LERA