1161 Welsh Rd · Hatfield, PA 19446

$289,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 0.50 ac lot $148/sqft · 40% below area Est $481k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with two spaces; Driveway parking
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Level lot with trees/wooded areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Hatfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#477 in PA, #4,384 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Penn Shs (math 78% / reading 50%, grade B-, #67 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 3,184 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $290k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,345
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -39.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Woodlawn Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,037 (+4%)	1mo	$512,000	$251	66
217 Cherry Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (+8%)	5mo	$377,300	$178	62
228 Woodlawn Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-6%)	12mo	$525,000	$286	57
545 Winding Rd	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (+3%)	7mo	$581,000	$288	57
340 Central Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (+8%)	6mo	$499,000	$236	55
349 Central Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,119 (+8%)	9mo	$450,000	$212	51
900 W Eighth	0.57mi	5/2.0	2,148 (+10%)	8mo	$300,000	$140	50
536 Oak Park Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,896 (-3%)	18mo	$555,000	$293	45
308 Central Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,698 (-14%)	14mo	$501,000	$295	44
712 Abbey Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,786 (-9%)	19mo	$450,000	$252	38
1333 Pickwick Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,132 (+9%)	20mo	$550,000	$258	26
512 W Mount Vernon St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,246 (+14%)	17mo	$630,000	$280	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-30,247
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,813
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19446

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,606/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Dragon Dr Unit 113 Lansdale, PA	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,400	$1.63	2d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $289,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $289,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    historical
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $299,900 Active
17. 2022-02-03
    price $1,785
18. 2013-08-22
    soldstatus $87,500
19. 2013-08-15
    soldstatus $87,500 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

20. 2013-08-15
    soldstatus $87,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

21. 2013-07-11
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

22. 2013-07-11
    historical 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

23. 2013-05-17
    listed $129,975 Active

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

24. 2013-05-17
    listed $129,975 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Handymans or contractors delight. Spacious Colonial home being sold in "As Is" "Where Is" condition. Tons of potential situated on a nice wooded lot with a detached 2 car garage. Home will need extensive renovations. No FHA or VA financing. Will accept cash or contruction aquisition loans only.

25. 1973-03-09
    soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,606 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,606 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$5,606
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,874
• − Management: −$2,874
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$1,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $3,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4217280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $76,866
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #1722
• State rank: #76 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hatfield

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #4384

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• City population: 19,431
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 61,848
• Household income: $106,310
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1930.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Asian 14% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.90%
• Current HPI: 279.3557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+917.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,785 RENT.
• 2013-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $87,500 TREND
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $87,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-11 Pending — TREND
• 2013-07-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-05-17 Listed $129,975 TREND
• 2013-05-17 Listed $129,975 BRIGHT MLS
• 1973-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,606 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.