Hemingway Plan · Greensboro, NC 27405

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse · 275 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hemingway new townhome design makes guests feel at home when you entertain. The open layout lends itself to socializing, with gathering areas connected to a well-appointed kitchen. The Owner's Suite is the perfect place to retreat to at the end of the day with a spacious bath and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Gathering areas
• Walk-in closet
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• GATHERING AREAS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 138 Flemingfield Rd, Greensboro NC 27405; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $263,850

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Hemingway); New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,558

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model home: Hemingway

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,186.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,163/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2517% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,346 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,186
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Plum Creek Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	3mo	$258,190	$166	82
904 Plum Creek Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	6mo	$263,000	$169	79
1506 Allegheny River St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	4mo	$268,132	$172	79
3809 Biddle St #77	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,651 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$151	79
902 Plum Creek Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-6%)	3mo	$245,050	$167	72
906 Plum Creek Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-6%)	3mo	$245,050	$167	72
1508 Allegheny River St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-6%)	3mo	$246,050	$167	70
1504 Allegheny River St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-6%)	4mo	$246,990	$168	70
2206 Raptor Way	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,615 (+4%)	12mo	$255,000	$158	67
2235 Owls Nest Trl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,593 (+2%)	16mo	$239,900	$151	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,972
• Equity at exit: $38,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-39,591
• Equity at exit: $22,496

Cash invested: $72,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27405

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,903/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $247,315

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,046
• Closing costs: $7,806
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2017 Peggy Joe Way Unit 1391420P Greensboro, NC	4.0	2.5	1894	$3,344	$1.77	14d	1	1.26mi
306 Murraylane Rd Greensboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,815	$1.36	14d	1	1.32mi
308 Oferrell St Greensboro, NC	4.0	2.5	1762	$1,895	$1.08	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,990 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,990 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 256 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,574
• − Property taxes: −$3,903
• − Insurance: −$1,301
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$7,569
• Taxable loss: −$5,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1335

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 329,421
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,303
• Household income: $47,431
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2517.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Ukrainian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.02%
• Current HPI: 243.1261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B