1911 Elkins Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$159,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,109 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1964 $143/sqft · 10% below area Est $132k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

New roof new windows updated bathrooms and updated kitchen ceramic tiles living room and bedrooms hardwood floors new hvac system 1 car garage fenced yard .

Key facts

• Ceramic tiles
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CERAMIC TILES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $159k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,430 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,420
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 20.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1715 Hudson Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+3%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	67
1923 Nashua Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-9%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	66
10515 Alliance Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-9%)	0mo	$112,900	$111	63
10418 Quaker Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-9%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	62
10615 Trask Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	950 (-14%)	5mo	$160,000	$168	61
10257 Dacey Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-9%)	2mo	$120,000	$118	61
1646 Hudson Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-9%)	2mo	$164,500	$162	60
10615 Alliance Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	975 (-12%)	3mo	$119,900	$123	57
10269 Dacey Dr	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-9%)	1mo	$169,000	$167	56
1716 Atmore Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	950 (-14%)	2mo	$130,000	$137	56
10421 Canfield Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,073 (-3%)	5mo	$154,900	$144	56
10201 Doane Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-9%)	4mo	$125,000	$123	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $31,481
• Equity at exit: $78,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $104,227
• Equity at exit: $127,146

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.43mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.55mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	0.55mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	0.57mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.57mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.77mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.78mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	0.78mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	0.85mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.86mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.86mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.89mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.93mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.94mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.96mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.98mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	0.98mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	1.01mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.01mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	1.08mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	43d	1	1.14mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	1.15mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	1.16mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	1.16mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	1.25mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	1.25mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	1.26mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	43d	1	1.26mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	1.28mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	1.28mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	1.29mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.30mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	1.33mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.34mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.34mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.35mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	1.35mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.35mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $159,000 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    New roof new windows updated bathrooms and updated kitchen ceramic tiles living room and bedrooms hardwood floors new hvac system 1 car garage fenced yard .

16. 2012-06-20
    soldstatus $72,000
17. 2011-12-01
    soldstatus $32,000
18. 2004-12-08
    soldstatus
19. 1995-03-08
    soldstatus $68,000
20. 1964-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,542 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$144/yr (+$12/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $1,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+133.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $159,000 Fizber.com
• 2012-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1964-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,398 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.