1221 Wolfsbane Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$337,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $331k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gaming room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• FLEX ROOM
• GAMING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include a community pool, greenbelt, park, playground, sidewalks and other amenities; Energy-efficient features include efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, lighting, low-flow commode, mechanical fresh air, rain/freeze sensors, thermostat, efficient water heater and windows; Water conservation features include low-flow fixtures and water-smart landscaping
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee; Association fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and management; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (side-by-side); 2 covered parking spaces; No carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs and sidewalks; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story; New construction (incomplete); Located in the Trails of Lavon planned development
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025; Smart home features present
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Gray water system; Wood fence in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Pantry; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level; additional bedrooms on second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Cable TV available; Other
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-535/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Community ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,860 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,303
• List price: $337,990
• Delta: 2.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873 River Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,311 (-0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	96
1211 Paintbrush Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,321 (+0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	95
1216 Bellflower Rd	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+0%)	2mo	$334,990	$144	92
865 River Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	0mo	$317,990	$154	79
880 Sunflower Rd	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+9%)	2mo	$354,990	$140	73
811 River Sky Rd	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+2%)	1mo	$449,900	$191	67
685 Sierra Rdg	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,131 (-8%)	1mo	$349,490	$164	62
953 Dahlia Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,071 (-11%)	1mo	$314,990	$152	58
817 Stone Grove Rd	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,388 (+3%)	1mo	$449,000	$188	58
525 Epiphany Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-8%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	56
412 Epiphany Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+9%)	1mo	$389,990	$154	52
1719 Hillside Stroll Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,574 (+11%)	1mo	$494,900	$192	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-57,530
• Equity at exit: $50,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-53,435
• Equity at exit: $29,223

Cash invested: $94,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $331,539

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $72	+0% $-45	+5% $-161	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-162	+0% $-45	+5% $73	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $41	base $-45	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,498
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	6d	1	0.07mi
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	0d	1	0.12mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	0d	1	0.14mi
1093 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2709	$2,700	$1.00	0d	1	0.18mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	44d	1	0.24mi
1008 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	3060	$3,700	$1.21	13d	1	0.25mi
641 Poppy Ln Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	3100	$3,800	$1.23	44d	1	0.29mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	44d	1	0.29mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	44d	1	0.43mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	0.43mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	8d	1	0.46mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.46mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	0.47mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	0.48mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	8d	1	0.49mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.49mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	44d	1	0.49mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	8d	1	0.50mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	16d	1	0.50mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	7d	1	0.54mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.55mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	0.56mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.59mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.62mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.62mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	3d	1	0.64mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	25d	1	0.66mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	44d	1	0.70mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.72mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	0.78mi
1066 Carpenter Ct Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	44d	1	1.16mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	44d	1	1.21mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	25d	1	1.22mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	44d	1	1.28mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	1.29mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	5d	1	1.34mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	25d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $337,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $337,990 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $337,990 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $337,990 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $337,990 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,990 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $337,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,990 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,990 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $337,990 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,990 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $337,990 Active 691-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $337,990 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,850
• − Management: −$2,850
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,832
• Taxable loss: −$6,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal, as well as new flooring in the game room and new kitchen appliances to modernize the kitchen.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
• Both New flooring in game room — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both New flooring in game room — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $337,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $337,990 Zillow