11250 New Town Rd · New Kent, VA 23124

$159,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1992 13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

13+ beautiful acres of privacy. A hunters delight!or use this as an investment property.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Rolling terrain
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• OVER 13 ACRES
• CREEK
• ROLLING TERRAIN
• OPEN FIELD SPACE
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.8% in New Kent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $160k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,151 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.73%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,296
• Equity at exit: $23,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $42,502
• Equity at exit: $13,830

Cash invested: $44,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23124

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $159,950

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $520	+0% $475	+5% $430	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $403	+0% $475	+5% $548	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $516	base $475	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,988
• Closing costs: $4,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   status Active
3. 2026-03-16
   price $159,950
4. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $239,000 Active
6. 2010-10-12
   soldstatus $89,500
7. 2010-10-08
   soldstatus $89,950 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   13+ beautiful acres of privacy. A hunters delight!or use this as an investment property.

8. 2010-08-31
   listed $89,950 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   13+ beautiful acres of privacy. A hunters delight!or use this as an investment property.

9. 2010-05-18
   historical
10. 2010-03-24
    listed $89,950
11. 2005-12-19
    soldstatus $42,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 56.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 38% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,960
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$4,653
• Taxable income: $3,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$782
• After-tax cash flow: $4,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kent County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102610
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,460
• Composite: 57.73/100
• National rank: #1055
• State rank: #32 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Kent

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,913

Population outlook (New Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,555 people
• By 2030: 26,549 · +8.1%
• By 2040: 30,259 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 33,471 · +36.3%
• By 2075: 41,261 · +68.0%
• By 2100: 44,339 · +80.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Kent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.7% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.51%
• Current HPI: 174.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+273.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $159,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $239,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2010-10-08 Sold (MLS) $89,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-08-31 Listed $89,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-05-18 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-03-24 Listed $89,950 CVRMLS
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $42,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.