20123 Poppy Hills Ln · Cleveland, TX 77327

$165,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,945 sqft lot $95/sqft · 39% below area Est $269k · 39% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Covered patio
• Granite kitchen

Tags

• ZONED TO CLEVELAND ISD
• GRANITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,011
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -38.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20078 Swinley Forest Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+5%)	1mo	$255,900	$141	76
10661 Ellerston Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,717 (-1%)	4mo	$254,900	$148	72
10250 Cabo Del Sol Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	3mo	$259,990	$156	71
10258 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,827 (+5%)	5mo	$284,880	$156	69
10401 Woodhill Spa Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (+3%)	2mo	$284,990	$159	69
10110 Oakland Hills Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+7%)	5mo	$289,990	$156	63
10291 Pelican Hill Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+5%)	6mo	$262,900	$144	61
10120 Oakland Hills Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+14%)	1mo	$260,000	$132	60
10621 Ellerston Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+5%)	4mo	$271,400	$149	59
10338 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+9%)	7mo	$266,900	$140	59
10281 Pelican Hill Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-12%)	4mo	$248,400	$163	55
30250 Kingston Heath Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (-11%)	2mo	$239,900	$156	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,338
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,936
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,410/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $67	+0% $21	+5% $-26	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-52	+0% $21	+5% $93	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $63	base $21	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	2d	1	1.13mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	2d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

3. 2026-04-20
   price $165,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

4. 2026-03-22
   price $175,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

5. 2026-02-21
   price $189,900 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

6. 2026-01-22
   price $199,900 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

7. 2025-12-18
   listed $212,500 Active 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Located with easy access to TX-105 and I-69 and zoned to Cleveland ISD. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open layout featuring a granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 36” cabinetry, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar overlooking the family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood flooring in kitchen and wet areas, and spacious secondary bedrooms add to the appeal. The primary suite includes dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and large backyard with room for a future pool. Low tax rate and low HOA.

8. 2022-08-11
   status Pending 739-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   NEW HOME OPPORTUNITY offered by First America Homes -- located with easy access to TX-105 and a quick commute on I-69. Zoned to Cleveland ISD! This 3 bed, 2 bath home is LOADED with features -- GRANITE kitchen w/ stainless steel appliances, MODERN 36" cabinetry, recessed can lighting, breakfast room, and breakfast bar that opens to family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood floors in kitchen and wet areas, SPACIOUS guest bedrooms. Private primary retreat featuring dual vanities, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet! Enjoy the covered patio w/ plenty of backyard space for a future pool or just relaxing the weekends away. Community features a super low TAX RATE and LOW HOA dues. Don't wait-- Schedule your PRIVATE showing today!!

9. 2022-07-29
   soldstatus Sold 739-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   NEW HOME OPPORTUNITY offered by First America Homes -- located with easy access to TX-105 and a quick commute on I-69. Zoned to Cleveland ISD! This 3 bed, 2 bath home is LOADED with features -- GRANITE kitchen w/ stainless steel appliances, MODERN 36" cabinetry, recessed can lighting, breakfast room, and breakfast bar that opens to family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood floors in kitchen and wet areas, SPACIOUS guest bedrooms. Private primary retreat featuring dual vanities, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet! Enjoy the covered patio w/ plenty of backyard space for a future pool or just relaxing the weekends away. Community features a super low TAX RATE and LOW HOA dues. Don't wait-- Schedule your PRIVATE showing today!!

10. 2022-04-22
    listed $298,995 Active 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    NEW HOME OPPORTUNITY offered by First America Homes -- located with easy access to TX-105 and a quick commute on I-69. Zoned to Cleveland ISD! This 3 bed, 2 bath home is LOADED with features -- GRANITE kitchen w/ stainless steel appliances, MODERN 36" cabinetry, recessed can lighting, breakfast room, and breakfast bar that opens to family room. High ceilings, vinyl wood floors in kitchen and wet areas, SPACIOUS guest bedrooms. Private primary retreat featuring dual vanities, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet! Enjoy the covered patio w/ plenty of backyard space for a future pool or just relaxing the weekends away. Community features a super low TAX RATE and LOW HOA dues. Don't wait-- Schedule your PRIVATE showing today!!

11. 2022-04-21
    historical
12. 2022-03-10
    price $298,995
13. 2022-02-23
    price $294,995
14. 2022-01-31
    price $288,995
15. 2022-01-21
    price $282,995
16. 2022-01-06
    listed $276,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,410 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,410 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$5,410
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in good condition with a good layout and features. Minor cosmetic updates can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $212,500 HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Listed $298,995 HARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-03-10 Price Changed $298,995 HARMLS
• 2022-02-23 Price Changed $294,995 HARMLS
• 2022-01-31 Price Changed $288,995 HARMLS
• 2022-01-21 Price Changed $282,995 HARMLS
• 2022-01-06 Listed $276,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+63.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,410 · -16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.