5940 Fernwood St · Shoreview, MN 55126

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 941 sqft · Condo public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1984 $385/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover modern elegance in this Cherrywood Hills Penthouse. Timeless white enamel woodwork & cabinetry adorn every corner. The Granite kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, LVT flooring, & a stunning backsplash. Master bedroom & hall feature new carpets, while waterproof-LVT flooring adds durability. Enjoy a Bluetooth kitchen light & granite bathroom. Recently replaced windows flood the spacious end unit with light, overlooking a wooded/pond area. Located in Shoreview, close to parks, trails, shopping, dining, lakes, downtown Mpls & St Paul. Includes attached private, secure garage & entry area. Award-winning 621 Mounds View School District. Associat

Key facts

• Granite bathroom
• Granite kitchen
• $385 HOA

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WATERPROOF LVT FLOORING
• BLUETOOTH KITCHEN LIGHT
• GRANITE BATHROOM
• RECENTLY REPLACED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $149,197 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-33,429
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-32,236
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55126

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,027

Max offer price $149,197

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1556 Hillview Rd Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	43d	1	1.13mi
9001 Griggs Ave Circle Pines, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$2,520	$3.31	1d	22	1.33mi
6333 Hodgson Rd Circle Pines, MN	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	1d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent - Other
3. 2026-03-05
   price $169,900
4. 2026-02-21
   price $174,900
5. 2026-02-13
   price $179,900
6. 2026-02-06
   price $182,500
7. 2026-01-21
   price $189,900
8. 2026-01-03
   price $199,900
9. 2025-12-07
   price $210,000
10. 2025-12-02
    price $220,000
11. 2025-11-16
    listed $230,000 Active
12. 2025-05-01
    historical
13. 2025-02-13
    price $219,900
14. 2024-11-22
    historical $2,300
15. 2024-11-22
    listed $226,000 Active
16. 2024-11-04
    listed $2,300
17. 2024-11-04
    historical
18. 2024-10-17
    listed $226,000 Active
19. 2024-10-16
    historical
20. 2024-08-23
    listed $227,500 Active
21. 2024-08-23
    historical
22. 2024-08-06
    listed $229,900 Active
23. 2024-06-29
    status Pending
24. 2024-06-28
    historical
25. 2024-06-03
    listed $229,900 Active
26. 2024-05-31
    historical
27. 2022-08-10
    soldstatus $222,000
28. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $220,000 Sold
29. 2022-07-07
    historical Contingent - Inspection
30. 2022-07-05
    status Active
31. 2022-07-02
    historical Contingent - Inspection
32. 2022-06-24
    listed $215,000 Active
33. 2008-04-25
    soldstatus $140,425
34. 2007-09-07
    soldstatus $140,425
35. 2007-09-07
    soldstatus $140,425
36. 2007-08-23
    historical
37. 2007-06-27
    listed $147,500
38. 2007-06-27
    historical
39. 2007-01-16
    listed $147,500
40. 2003-03-26
    soldstatus $129,000
41. 2002-12-18
    historical
42. 2002-12-18
    listed $129,000
43. 2000-07-18
    soldstatus $98,500
44. 1990-09-14
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$971
• After-tax cash flow: $-435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shoreview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shoreview, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 27,456
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,456
• Household income: $108,217
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.72%
• Current HPI: 245.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+183.2% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $182,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listed $230,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Rental Removed $2,300 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $226,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listed for Rent $2,300 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-17 Listed $226,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Listed $227,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Listed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-03 Listed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-05 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Listed $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $140,425 Public Records
• 2007-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $140,425 Public Records
• 2007-09-07 Sold (MLS) $140,425 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-27 Listed $147,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-16 Listed $147,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-18 Listed $129,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1990-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,056 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.