1509 Good Pr Ave · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$219,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Other · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 3,686 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Kitson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($626/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,541 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $123,030
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $359,463
• Equity at exit: $427,410

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,639

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $114	+0% $52	+5% $-10	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-15	+0% $52	+5% $120	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $108	base $52	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	0.15mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	44d	1	0.21mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	0.23mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	44d	1	0.25mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	0.32mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	0.35mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.36mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	22d	1	0.39mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	14d	1	0.39mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	14d	1	0.39mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	0.43mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	0.43mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	0.47mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	0.48mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	22d	1	0.48mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	14d	1	0.49mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	22d	1	0.49mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.60mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	14d	2	0.83mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	44d	1	0.92mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	44d	1	1.06mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	1.06mi
7456 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,700	$1.16	44d	1	1.12mi
7449 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,625	$1.10	22d	1	1.13mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	1.17mi
7440 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,600	$1.01	14d	1	1.18mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	22d	1	1.22mi
7424 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,750	$1.10	44d	1	1.26mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	14d	1	1.32mi
7350 100th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $219,999 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $219,999 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-05-07
   price $219,999 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   The Kitson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-20
   listed $220,999 Active 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   The Kitson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,430/yr (+$286/mo · 575.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $219,999 LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $220,999 LARMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.