915 C F Kinney Rd · Waverly, FL 33859

$160,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · Other · 404 Days on market

Built 1986 1.09 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * Enjoy the lakefront views at this beautifully renovated Lake Wales home! The interior of this home features a brand new kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets and lake-view window over the kitchen sink, new A/C, new windows, gorgeous, decorative, brick fireplace with mantle and large wall to wall raised hearth, high ceilings, loft overlooking the living room, spacious bedrooms, updated bathrooms, all new ceiling fans, light fixtures and flooring, and fresh paint. The exterior of this home features a grand, covered front porch, new roof, new septic drainfield, incredible views of Lake Venus and a spacious yard, as this home sits on over 1 acre!

Key facts

• **two-story home**
• 1.09 acre lot
• Built 1986

Tags

• **LAKEFRONT PROPERTY**
• **TWO-STORY HOME**

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#817 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.16%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,773
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $50,250
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $639	-5% $584	+0% $529	+5% $473	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $447	+0% $529	+5% $610	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $569	base $529	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
243 C F Kinney Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	22d	1	0.62mi
517 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.92mi
199 Dinner Lake Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	15d	1	0.92mi
238 Dinner Lake Pl Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1913	$1,950	$1.02	24d	1	0.94mi
626 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	24d	1	0.98mi
343 Dinner Lake Ct Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	0.99mi
598 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1931	$2,100	$1.09	24d	1	0.99mi
437 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,950	$1.25	15d	1	1.00mi
338 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,150	$1.17	15d	1	1.01mi
645 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,000	$1.03	12d	1	1.01mi
346 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,150	$1.17	15d	1	1.01mi
243 Brookshire Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	2330	$1,971	$0.85	14d	1	1.05mi
413 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	4d	1	1.05mi
315 Dinner Lake Ct Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,000	$1.42	24d	1	1.07mi
474 Hennepin Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	1.21mi
802 Ballantyne Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,100	$1.09	24d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-17
   status Active
3. 2025-06-04
   status Pending
4. 2025-05-30
   price $160,000
5. 2025-05-08
   price $165,000
6. 2025-03-11
   price $174,000
7. 2025-02-21
   price $175,000
8. 2024-12-27
   status Active
9. 2024-12-26
   status Pending
10. 2024-08-15
    status Active
11. 2024-08-07
    price $287,000
12. 2024-07-16
    listed $150,000 Active
13. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus $340,000 Closed 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * Enjoy the lakefront views at this beautifully renovated Lake Wales home! The interior of this home features a brand new kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets and lake-view window over the kitchen sink, new A/C, new windows, gorgeous, decorative, brick fireplace with mantle and large wall to wall raised hearth, high ceilings, loft overlooking the living room, spacious bedrooms, updated bathrooms, all new ceiling fans, light fixtures and flooring, and fresh paint. The exterior of this home features a grand, covered front porch, new roof, new septic drainfield, incredible views of Lake Venus and a spacious yard, as this home sits on over 1 acre!

14. 2022-04-05
    status Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * Enjoy the lakefront views at this beautifully renovated Lake Wales home! The interior of this home features a brand new kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets and lake-view window over the kitchen sink, new A/C, new windows, gorgeous, decorative, brick fireplace with mantle and large wall to wall raised hearth, high ceilings, loft overlooking the living room, spacious bedrooms, updated bathrooms, all new ceiling fans, light fixtures and flooring, and fresh paint. The exterior of this home features a grand, covered front porch, new roof, new septic drainfield, incredible views of Lake Venus and a spacious yard, as this home sits on over 1 acre!

15. 2022-03-29
    listed $339,950 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * Enjoy the lakefront views at this beautifully renovated Lake Wales home! The interior of this home features a brand new kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets and lake-view window over the kitchen sink, new A/C, new windows, gorgeous, decorative, brick fireplace with mantle and large wall to wall raised hearth, high ceilings, loft overlooking the living room, spacious bedrooms, updated bathrooms, all new ceiling fans, light fixtures and flooring, and fresh paint. The exterior of this home features a grand, covered front porch, new roof, new septic drainfield, incredible views of Lake Venus and a spacious yard, as this home sits on over 1 acre!

16. 2019-05-13
    historical
17. 2019-05-02
    historical
18. 2019-02-08
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2018-12-10
    status Active
20. 2018-11-30
    status Pending
21. 2018-11-12
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $5,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #19901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 302
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+68.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-16 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Sold (MLS) $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-29 Listed $339,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-08 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-12 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $225 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.