69 Fernwood Ln · Chapel Hill, NC 27516

$295,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,542 sqft · Townhouse public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1978 1,742 sqft lot Est $473k · 38% under $309/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

Key facts

• End unit townhome
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• NEWER HVAC
• SMART BUILT-IN STORAGE
• SKYLIGHTS
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,558 (above-grade finished area)
• HOA & community: HOA: Village West HOA; Monthly HOA fee (listed) includes grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, and road maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, parking, recreation facilities, landscaping, and trash service

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces in a parking lot with additional parking available; Private road access (asphalt) with private road maintenance agreement
• Security: Street lights in community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer and water connected
• Home design: Townhouse end unit with one common wall; Two levels; Entry via front porch; R-3 zoning; Property listed as fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as part of Building 2
• Exterior features: Front porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Outdoor storage; Community fenced outdoor pool; Partially wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range with range hood; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes upper-level bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Parquet; Tile; Combination flooring types
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with forced air; Fireplace(s) provide additional heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bathtub-only bathroom; Separate shower; Built-in bookcases and storage; Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; Sliding doors and storm door(s); Wood-burning fireplace in family room (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in hall/upper-level laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.8% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in NC, #742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Hill High (math 79% / reading 47%, grade B-, #177 of 535 statewide, top 33%, 1,597 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,095 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $473,394
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Bluff Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+1%)	1mo	$317,000	$204	94
216 Ridge Trl	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,574 (+2%)	2mo	$315,000	$200	88
201 Estes Dr Apt D	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$330,000	$236	64
101 Thomas Ln Unit D-3	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$430,000	$269	61
107 Mulberry St Apt B	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-11%)	7mo	$420,000	$307	58
219 W Columbia Pl	0.48mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,655 (+7%)	8mo	$455,000	$275	54
805 N Columbia St	0.50mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,453 (-6%)	11mo	$485,000	$334	53
140 W Franklin St Unit 310	0.73mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,484 (-4%)	3mo	$880,000	$593	52
601 W Rosemary St Unit 801	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (-5%)	6mo	$975,000	$663	48
620 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd #302	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-7%)	9mo	$418,000	$291	44
140 W Franklin St Unit 504	0.73mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,366 (-11%)	1mo	$1,080,000	$791	41
140 W Franklin St Unit 807	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-9%)	14mo	$1,300,000	$923	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,338
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,549
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27516

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,577/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$309
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,988

Max offer price $263,095

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
223 Jay St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,349	$1.58	23d	1	0.08mi
234 Jay St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	13d	1	0.09mi
706 Sykes St Unit A Chapel Hill, NC	4.0	2.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	23d	1	0.21mi
505 N Greensboro St Unit A Carrboro, NC	4.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	23d	1	0.48mi
1104 N Greensboro St Unit 15 Carrboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,700	$1.58	13d	1	0.57mi
206 N Graham St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1297	$2,700	$2.08	23d	1	0.58mi
500 W Rosemary St Unit 1300722P Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	3.0	2066	$7,933	$3.84	13d	1	0.62mi
714 Bradley Rd Unit A Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	23d	1	0.72mi
111 Barclay Rd Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	13d	1	0.92mi
112 W Poplar Ave Carrboro, NC	4.0	2.0	1744	$3,200	$1.83	13d	1	0.94mi
308 Laurel Ave Carrboro, NC	4.0	3.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	23d	1	1.02mi
1000 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1221	$4,595	$3.76	13d	268	1.25mi
220 Elizabeth St Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.5	1175	$1,698	$1.44	13d	5	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $309 · $3,708/yr

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    price $295,000
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $305,000 Active
19. 2023-12-11
    price $117,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

20. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $327,000 Closed
21. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $327,000
22. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $327,000
23. 2023-03-21
    historical Contingent
24. 2023-03-13
    listed $339,000 Active
25. 2023-03-13
    listed $339,000
26. 2022-12-03
    historical
27. 2022-11-17
    listed $330,000 Active
28. 2016-10-24
    soldstatus $153,500 Closed
29. 2016-10-24
    soldstatus $153,500
30. 2016-10-24
    soldstatus $153,500
31. 2016-10-12
    historical Contingent
32. 2016-09-27
    price $159,500
33. 2016-09-21
    listed $163,000 Active
34. 2016-09-21
    listed $159,500
35. 2009-06-03
    soldstatus $167,000
36. 2009-06-03
    soldstatus $167,000
37. 2009-06-03
    soldstatus $167,000
38. 2009-03-26
    historical
39. 2009-03-10
    listed $169,000
40. 2009-03-10
    listed $169,000
41. 1998-12-21
    soldstatus $115,000
42. 1998-12-18
    soldstatus $115,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

43. 1998-12-18
    price $129,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

44. 1998-12-18
    soldstatus $115,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

45. 1998-08-08
    listed $117,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

46. 1998-08-08
    listed $117,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE ON THE BUS LINE. PARQUET ENTRY HALL & DINING AREA. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN, EATING AREA & STAIRWELL. PRIVATE VIEW FROM BACK DECK.

47. 1996-10-31
    soldstatus $111,000
48. 1990-06-25
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,577 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,577 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,577
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,649
• − Management: −$2,649
• − HOA: −$3,708
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700720
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,687
• Composite: 54.28/100
• National rank: #1370
• State rank: #24 of 178 in NC

Livability — Chapel Hill

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #742

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chapel Hill, NC
• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 62,515
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,358
• Household income: $106,353
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1783.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.82%
• Current HPI: 222.7543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+288.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $295,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $305,000 TMLS
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $117,000 TMLS
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $327,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-25 Sold (MLS) $327,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-04-25 Sold (MLS) $327,000 TMLS
• 2023-03-21 Contingent — TMLS
• 2023-03-13 Listed $339,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-03-13 Listed $339,000 TMLS
• 2022-12-03 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2022-11-17 Listed $330,000 TMLS
• 2016-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $153,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-24 Sold (MLS) $153,500 AMLSNC
• 2016-10-24 Sold (MLS) $153,500 TMLS
• 2016-10-12 Contingent — TMLS
• 2016-09-27 Price Changed $159,500 TMLS
• 2016-09-21 Listed $163,000 TMLS
• 2016-09-21 Listed $159,500 AMLSNC
• 2009-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-03 Sold (MLS) $167,000 AMLSNC
• 2009-06-03 Sold (MLS) $167,000 TMLS
• 2009-03-26 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-03-10 Listed $169,000 AMLSNC
• 2009-03-10 Listed $169,000 TMLS
• 1998-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-18 Sold (MLS) $115,000 AMLSNC
• 1998-12-18 Price Changed $129,500 TMLS
• 1998-12-18 Sold (MLS) $115,000 TMLS
• 1998-08-08 Listed $117,000 AMLSNC
• 1998-08-08 Listed $117,000 TMLS
• 1996-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,577 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.