2802 Nickel Ave · Mission, TX 78574

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2018 6,189 sqft lot Est $137k · at est. ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious corner-lot double-wide home for sale in Mission, Texas! Built in 2018, this well-maintained home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open-concept kitchen, split-bedroom layout, two living areas, and two dining areas, providing plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious floor plan offers comfort and flexibility for the entire family. Appliances conveying include the stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, and microwave. Best of all, you own the lot—no lot rent, no HOA, and this is not a 55+ community. Conveniently located between 495 and 2 Mile Road, just minutes from the expressway, H-E-B, Walmart, shopping, dining, and schools.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Two dining areas
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• CORNER-LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• TWO DINING AREAS
• NO LOT RENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: City sewer
• Home design: Own lot
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Motorized gate; Covered patio; Deck/porch; Chain link fencing; Corner lot; Paved road access; Curbs and sidewalks in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric smooth top range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Laminate countertops; Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Double-pane windows; Mini blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hilda C Escobar/Alicia C Rios El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 373 students, 87% FRL); Alton Memorial J H (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 819 students, 91% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,268
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Buckboard Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	2mo	$139,900	$91	62
209 Buckboard Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	3mo	$85,000	$54	59
108 Covered Wagon Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-1%)	14mo	$99,000	$60	57
112 Buckboard Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	0mo	$119,900	$82	46
2906 Spur Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+12%)	11mo	$169,000	$90	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-736
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $26,898
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	19d	1	0.43mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	19d	1	0.75mi
3006 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,600	$1.12	43d	1	0.77mi
3102 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	43d	1	0.79mi
1806 W 31st 1/2 St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1509	$1,800	$1.19	21d	1	0.85mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	43d	1	0.87mi
3209 Black Oak Ln Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1672	$1,700	$1.02	14d	1	0.93mi
502 Thornwood St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	14d	1	0.99mi
607 Alameda Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	44d	1	1.10mi
3401 N Mayberry Rd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$961	$0.84	43d	1	1.25mi
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.34mi
1400 N Dunlap Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	1068	$800	$0.75	19d	1	1.38mi
3108 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 661-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $135,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$2,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $3,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-02-22 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.