Gehrig Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$281,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Townhouse · 73 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Majors is a new series offering single-family homes for sale at the Synova masterplan in Crosby, TX. The community offers onsite amenities, including an open air recreation center, miles of trails, playgrounds, parks and lakes. Synova provides convenient commutes and travel to nearby employment hubs with proximity to I-90 and the Grand Parkway. Lake Houston is a short drive away, offering opportunities to boat, swim and more. Plus, the community is located within desirable Crosby ISD.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Convenient commutes
• Lakes

Tags

• OPEN AIR RECREATION CENTER
• MILES OF TRAILS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PARKS
• LAKES
• CONVENIENT COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($8/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,759 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,335
• Equity at exit: $42,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,554
• Equity at exit: $24,381

Cash invested: $78,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $281,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $98	+0% $1	+5% $-97	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-97	+0% $1	+5% $98	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $72	base $1	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,498
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	26d	1	0.26mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	26d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $281,990 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,990 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,990 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $281,990 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Majors is a new series offering single-family homes for sale at the Synova masterplan in Crosby, TX. The community offers onsite amenities, including an open air recreation center, miles of trails, playgrounds, parks and lakes. Synova provides convenient commutes and travel to nearby employment hubs with proximity to I-90 and the Grand Parkway. Lake Houston is a short drive away, offering opportunities to boat, swim and more. Plus, the community is located within desirable Crosby ISD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − Depreciation: −$8,203
• Taxable loss: −$4,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $1,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhouse in the Synova masterplan in Crosby, TX, is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a prime location with access to amenities and convenient commutes.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $281,990 Zillow