1006 Burnt Hickory Dr SW · Atlanta, GA 30311

$317,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1960 0.41 ac lot $199/sqft · 23% above area Est $486k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Atlanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in GA, #919 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Atlanta Public Schools (urban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #80 of 174 in GA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kipp Ways Primary Charter School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 477 students, 100% FRL, charter); Jean Childs Young Middle School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #449 of 470 statewide, top 97%, 747 students, 100% FRL); Benjamin E. Mays High School (math 22% / reading 15%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,337 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 71% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Atlanta Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,193/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 2825% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $240k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,323 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,321
• List price: $317,000
• Delta: -34.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3457 Spreading Oak Dr SW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-2%)	7mo	$205,000	$131	75
3330 SW Pamlico Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-6%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	69
3137 Ardley Rd SW	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+5%)	8mo	$259,900	$156	65
3280 Hazelwood Dr SW	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+15%)	9mo	$355,000	$194	64
3219 W Manor Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+0%)	9mo	$349,000	$219	62
835 Lynn Cir SW	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,634 (+3%)	1mo	$363,000	$222	59
3281 Annelaine Dr SW	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,733 (+9%)	2mo	$330,000	$190	58
1026 Lynhurst Dr SW	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+9%)	15mo	$285,000	$165	50
3195 Benjamin E Mays Dr SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+15%)	11mo	$230,000	$126	42
3209 W Manor Cir SW	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,389 (-13%)	0mo	$160,000	$115	39
970 Tuckawanna Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,471 (-8%)	17mo	$250,000	$170	39
3175 W Manor Cir SW	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,811 (+14%)	8mo	$395,000	$218	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-69,449
• Equity at exit: $47,266

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-100,702
• Equity at exit: $27,408

Cash invested: $88,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30311

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $285,057

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-91	+0% $-181	+5% $-271	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-267	+0% $-181	+5% $-94	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-100	base $-181	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,250
• Closing costs: $9,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
871 Laurelmont Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,750	$1.45	0d	1	0.33mi
1026 Lynhurst Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,500	$1.45	14d	1	0.50mi
1026 Lynhurst Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,500	$1.45	1d	1	0.50mi
1284 Lynhurst Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,050	$1.04	20d	1	0.74mi
3311 Rabun Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,350	$1.54	26d	1	0.85mi
3039 Lynn Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,300	$1.31	26d	1	0.86mi
3606 Ginnis Dr SW #8 Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,411	$1.15	9d	1	0.89mi
3616 Utoy Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1496	$1,950	$1.30	45d	1	0.91mi
513 Constellation Overlook SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1446	$2,300	$1.59	26d	1	1.01mi
658 Providence Pl SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1571	$2,100	$1.34	26d	1	1.07mi
200 Suttles Dr SW Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,123	$1.12	26d	1	1.08mi
778 Nehemiah Ln SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1576	$1,950	$1.24	26d	1	1.09mi
648 Providence Pl SW #37 Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1416	$2,195	$1.55	1d	1	1.09mi
648 Providence Pl SW #37 Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1416	$2,195	$1.55	26d	1	1.09mi
751 Fairburn Rd SW Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$2,170	$1.87	1d	31	1.12mi
1580 Childress Dr SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1746	$2,250	$1.29	16d	1	1.12mi
708 Crestwell Cir SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1236	$1,645	$1.33	26d	1	1.22mi
722 Crestwell Cir #722 Atlanta, GA	2.0	3.0	1440	$2,279	$1.58	22d	1	1.24mi
755 Crestwell Cir SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1546	$1,800	$1.16	26d	1	1.26mi
897 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,155	$1.44	26d	1	1.26mi
887 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,250	$1.67	26d	1	1.27mi
975 Society Cir SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1700	$2,350	$1.38	4d	1	1.27mi
832 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	26d	1	1.32mi
841 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,895	$1.41	1d	1	1.33mi
841 Ambient Way SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,895	$1.41	19d	1	1.33mi
865 Society Cir SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1440	$2,700	$1.88	1d	1	1.35mi
900 Society Cir SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1710	$2,500	$1.46	26d	1	1.35mi
415 Fairburn Rd SW Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,490	$1.67	1d	31	1.38mi
3230 Cushman Cir SW Atlanta, GA	2.0	1.0	1143	$1,200	$1.05	9d	1	1.43mi
460 Peyton Rd SW Unit B Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $317,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $337,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $337,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $337,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $337,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $337,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $337,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $357,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

16. 2026-04-07
    price $367,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

17. 2026-03-18
    price $377,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

18. 2026-02-20
    listed $387,000 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

19. 2026-02-19
    historical $387,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Welcome to this Brick front spacious 3bed 2 bath home with open and bright concept..level front yard with lots of space with fenced backyard..NO HOA...Easy access to I-285, Mercedes Benz Stadium and Westside Beltline, offering the best in town living

20. 2025-04-21
    soldstatus $240,000
21. 2025-04-15
    soldstatus $220,000
22. 1975-07-31
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,916 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,488/yr (+$124/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,757
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$9,222
• Taxable loss: −$7,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1300120
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,306
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7006
• State rank: #80 of 174 in GA

Livability — Atlanta

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #919

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlanta, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 629,525
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 34,953
• Household income: $50,649
• Rent vs Own: 57.1% rent · 42.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2825.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.99%
• Current HPI: 259.954
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+659.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $357,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $367,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $377,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $387,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon $387,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1975-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,428 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.