320 Road 5821 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2023 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $114/sqft · 37% below area Est $165k · 37% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained manufactured home nestled on approximately 0.24 acres in the growing Santa Fe community of Cleveland, Texas. This inviting property features a covered front deck — the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee or entertain guests in the evening breeze. Inside, the open-concept layout maximizes both functionality and comfort, offering flexible living space to suit a variety of lifestyles. The spacious lot provides ample room for parking, outdoor activities, and future improvements, giving you the freedom to make this property your own.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Covered front deck
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (919 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.76%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,481
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -30.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
382 Lucia Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,033 (+12%)	3mo	$156,990	$152	51
350 Lucia Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+14%)	2mo	$133,990	$128	50
401 Lucia Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+14%)	3mo	$170,990	$163	48
385 Lucia Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+14%)	4mo	$170,991	$163	48
TBD 663 Road 5252	1.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	982 (+6%)	3mo	$120,000	$122	47
1086 Road 5713	1.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	10mo	$85,000	$95	47
374 Lucia Way	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	771 (-17%)	2mo	$120,990	$157	45
836 Road 5605	1.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (+8%)	2mo	$150,000	$150	45
5177 Road 5210	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+15%)	4mo	$107,900	$101	37
235 Road 5253	1.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,020 (+10%)	6mo	$150,000	$147	36
33 Road 5136	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+25%)	6mo	$245,000	$212	35
382 Road 5704	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+24%)	9mo	$185,000	$162	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $8,926
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $45,107
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $101,000 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 42 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +46.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$13
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $416	+0% $386	+5% $356	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $333	+0% $386	+5% $439	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $413	base $386	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	111d	1	0.73mi
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	78d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of El Norte POAAnnual association fee of $150

Exterior

• Parking: No on-site parking
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2023Wood siding exteriorBlock foundationMetal roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorOne bedroom on second floorOne bedroom on third floorOne additional bedroom possible
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsBathroom on first floorBathroom on second floorBathroom on third floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level7 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    remarks 693-char remark
23. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on marketlisting id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
24. 2026-08-16
    days on market $100,900 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-08-15
    days on market $100,900 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-08-14
    days on market $100,900 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-08-13
    days on market $100,900 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-08-12
    days on market $100,900 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-08-11
    days on market $100,900 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-08-10
    days on market $100,900 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-08-09
    days on market $100,900 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-08-08
    days on market $100,900 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-08-06
    days on market $100,900 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-08-05
    days on market $100,900 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-08-04
    days on market $100,900 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-08-03
    days on market $100,900 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-07-31
    days on market $100,900 Active 155 DOM
38. 2026-07-30
    days on market $100,900 Active 154 DOM
39. 2026-07-30
    days on market $100,900 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-07-28
    days on market $100,900 Active 152 DOM
41. 2026-07-26
    days on market $100,900 Active 150 DOM
42. 2026-07-24
    days on market $100,900 Active 148 DOM
43. 2026-07-23
    days on market $100,900 Active 147 DOM
44. 2026-07-22
    days on market $100,900 Active 146 DOM
45. 2026-07-21
    days on market $100,900 Active 145 DOM
46. 2026-07-20
    days on market $100,900 Active 144 DOM
47. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,900 Active 142 DOM
48. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,900 Active 141 DOM
49. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,900 Active 140 DOM
50. 2026-07-15
    days on market $100,900 Active 139 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,103/yr (+$92/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$746
• After-tax cash flow: $3,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,620–$13,860 screening

This well-maintained manufactured home in a growing community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental Adding a small shed or storage unit — Additional storage can be beneficial for renters looking to store belongings. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Santa Fe El Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of El Norte POAAnnual association fee of $150

Exterior

• Parking: No on-site parking
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2023Wood siding exteriorBlock foundationMetal roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorOne bedroom on second floorOne bedroom on third floorOne additional bedroom possible
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsBathroom on first floorBathroom on second floorBathroom on third floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level7 total rooms

Price history

+4.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-24 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-08-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $100,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $109,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.