818 Old Depot Rd · Arlington, VT 05262

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1940 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

I bedroom cabin with a drive through garage being sold furnished as is

Key facts

• Many hiking trails
• Newer furnace
• Ski areas

Tags

• CLOSE TO LAKE PARAN
• MANY HIKING TRAILS
• SKI AREAS
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• RECENT METAL ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with capacity for 1 car
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic system; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available; Telephone at site
• Home design: Ranch style; Existing property; Blue exterior; Metal roof; One-story entry (primary living on main level)
• Construction: Built in 1940; Wood frame construction; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Unknown survey status
• Exterior features: Country setting; Sloping lot; Wooded; Crushed stone driveway; Public road frontage (approx. 175 ft); Two driveways

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (19 x 11); Range - Gas; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level (18 x 8)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (11 x 6) on main level
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Forced air
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Basement with exterior walk-up access, partial and unfinished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $889 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $59 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $120k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.28%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $25,809
• Equity at exit: $35,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $75,963
• Equity at exit: $42,475

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05262

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $120,000 Pending 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-01-24
   listed $120,000 Active
8. 2022-09-06
   soldstatus $79,000
9. 2022-08-31
   soldstatus $79,000 Closed 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   I bedroom cabin with a drive through garage being sold furnished as is

10. 2022-08-11
    historical Active with Contract 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    I bedroom cabin with a drive through garage being sold furnished as is

11. 2022-06-08
    price $89,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    I bedroom cabin with a drive through garage being sold furnished as is

12. 2022-04-07
    listed $99,000 Active 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    I bedroom cabin with a drive through garage being sold furnished as is

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $4,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #21059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,979

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% Scottish 2% Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Current HPI: 344.1934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+21.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $120,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) $79,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-08-11 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $89,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-04-07 Listed $99,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,577 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.