7820 Star Light Ln · Canyon, TX 79015

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1999 $118/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• New appliances
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#273 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,281 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -52.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,447
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $34,101
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79015

• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3923 Jj St Unit 3923 JJ C Canyon, TX	4.0	2.0	2128	$1,850	$0.87	13d	1	1.10mi
9770 Elite St Unit 1 Canyon, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,950	$1.43	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

2. 2026-04-30
   status Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

3. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

4. 2026-04-23
   price $199,000 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

5. 2026-04-18
   status Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

6. 2026-04-12
   historical Active Under Contract 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

7. 2026-03-30
   listed $205,900 Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and country living! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to enjoy peace, privacy, and the outdoors. Inside you'll find stylish luxury vinyl flooring that flows throughout the home, complemented by granite countertops in the kitchen and new appliances. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to grow, this property offers the perfect opportunity to enjoy modern upgrades with room to roam.

8. 2024-08-05
   soldstatus
9. 2005-07-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,944/yr (+$245/mo · 422.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$497
• After-tax cash flow: $1,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #6380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 23,765
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,765
• Household income: $83,445
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.02%
• Current HPI: 181.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.61%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,000 AARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $205,900 AARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · -68.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.