757 Mt Nebo Rd · Homestead Valley, CA 92252

$269,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1969 5.00 ac lot $221/sqft · 19% below area Est $331k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks - Investor Fixer on 5 acres in Joshua Tree! Ready for your next project? This one checks the boxes. Situated on 5 level, usable acres in desirable Joshua Tree, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also includes a separate small cabin and sweeping desert views. This is a true renovation project--requiring a complete overhaul and major repairs (including visible wall damage), which has been thoughtfully priced to reflect its condition. For the right buyer, the upside is significant. With a recently updated short-term rental directly across the street, the area demonstrates strong income potential. Whether your goal is to flip, create a rental, or design your own desert getaway, this

Key facts

• 5 acres
• Separate small cabin
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• SEPARATE SMALL CABIN
• SWEEPING DESERT VIEWS
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot listed as fee simple, approximately 5.0 acres; Directions provided by listing: Hwy 62 East to Sunburst, head North to Golden, then east to Border, North to Winters then East on Mt Nebo; property is about 1/4 mile on the right
• Financial info: Selling as cash only; Short-term rentals allowed; Will not consider long-term lease
• HOA & community: No monthly association fees; Not a gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: No security features
• Utilities: Sewer: unknown; Not part of a PUD
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single-story (ground level); Assessor listed year built
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Has panoramic views including desert, valley, mountains, and hills; Accessory buildings on the property; Property requires major repairs

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($421/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $270k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,957 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,859
• List price: $269,500
• Delta: -18.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,682
• Equity at exit: $40,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-62,801
• Equity at exit: $23,301

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92252

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $269,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $111	+0% $35	+5% $-41	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-47	+0% $35	+5% $118	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $104	base $35	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,500 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,500 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,500 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,500 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,500 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,500 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,500 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,500 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,500 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,500 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $269,500 Active 862-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    historical
18. 2026-02-19
    price $275,000
19. 2026-02-18
    status Active
20. 2026-02-07
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-18
    status Active
22. 2025-11-18
    historical
23. 2025-05-22
    listed $290,000 Active
24. 2013-11-01
    historical
25. 2013-07-01
    status Active
26. 2013-06-08
    status Pending
27. 2013-04-27
    listed $40,000 Active
28. 1982-01-04
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$967/yr (+$81/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$4,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $1,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Homestead Valley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,538
• Household income: $66,598
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 3% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.66%
• Current HPI: 541.8347
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+541.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $269,500 GPSMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $275,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-07 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $290,000 GPSMLS
• 2013-11-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-07-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2013-06-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-04-27 Listed $40,000 CRMLS
• 1982-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.