Pinehollow Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$245,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 319 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,417.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart El (math 71% / reading 60%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 815 students, 11% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,417
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: 1.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 Faison Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$130	81
15119 Willowwater Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	1mo	$247,990	$157	77
14809 Archer Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$249,990	$176	72
738 Amesbury Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$276,040	$195	70
734 Amesbury Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (-13%)	2mo	$271,040	$193	68
514 Dalloway St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-13%)	1mo	$229,500	$164	63
15032 Ronan Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-12%)	2mo	$271,040	$192	58
15049 Ronan Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (-13%)	1mo	$269,040	$192	57
15037 Ronan Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+14%)	2mo	$288,290	$158	54
15203 Abella Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	54
15107 Willowwater Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	2mo	$235,990	$167	53
273 Mesa Vw	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,823 (+13%)	0mo	$239,500	$131	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,754
• Equity at exit: $36,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,956
• Equity at exit: $20,960

Cash invested: $67,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,271
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$303 /mo · $3,636/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $242,417

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $132	+0% $48	+5% $-36	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-38	+0% $48	+5% $134	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $110	base $48	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,604
• Closing costs: $7,273
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	22d	1	0.19mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	9d	1	0.20mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	45d	1	0.47mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	22d	1	0.49mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	6d	1	0.51mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	3d	1	0.51mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,677	$1.82	0d	16	0.66mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	45d	1	1.06mi
2283 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,990 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $245,990 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,990 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,990 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,990 Active 313 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,990 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,990 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,990 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,990 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,990 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,990 Active 298 DOM
16. 2025-08-06
    listed $247,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-06-05
    listed $247,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,579
• − Property taxes: −$3,636
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$7,052
• Taxable loss: −$3,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning of the gutters to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-06 Listed $247,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-05 Listed $247,990 Zillow