815 W 28th St · Erie, PA 16508

$169,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,249 sqft · MultiFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1918 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot $76/sqft · 27% above area Est $134k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a strong investment opportunity! Fully occupied property consisting of two residential units and one commercial unit. The first-floor unit offers two bedrooms, an eat-in kitchen, living room with decorative fireplace, and enclosed porch. The recently updated second-floor unit includes an eat-in kitchen and both units feature updated windows. The two-story garage provides storage, a half bath, and overhead door access. ALL units have separate utilities.

Key facts

• Decorative fireplace
• Updated windows
• One commercial unit

Tags

• TWO RESIDENTIAL UNITS
• ONE COMMERCIAL UNIT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• UPDATED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $170k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,989
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 26.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2124 Liberty St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,260 (+0%)	3mo	$95,000	$42	69
2955 Maple St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,157 (-4%)	11mo	$127,000	$59	61
649 W 21st St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,308 (+3%)	6mo	$170,000	$74	60
1037-39 W 29th St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,116 (-6%)	14mo	$138,500	$65	57
336 W 21st St	0.75mi	3/3.0	2,234 (-1%)	14mo	$100,000	$45	52
1031 W 28th St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (-10%)	15mo	$52,000	$26	50
825 W 23rd St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (-10%)	12mo	$127,000	$63	49
715 W 21st St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-6%)	14mo	$135,000	$64	49
3122 Plum St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (-14%)	11mo	$110,000	$57	48
906 W 21st St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,040 (-9%)	8mo	$150,000	$74	47
358 W 24th St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,392 (+6%)	12mo	$108,000	$45	42
4008 Zoar Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,976 (-12%)	12mo	$197,000	$100	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $563
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $36,752
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16508

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 73%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$2,044
Total (2 units)			$2,044

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	43d	1	0.34mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	43d	1	0.94mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	43d	1	1.08mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	1.23mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   This property offers a strong investment opportunity! Fully occupied property consisting of two residential units and one commercial unit. The first-floor unit offers two bedrooms, an eat-in kitchen, living room with decorative fireplace, and enclosed porch. The recently updated second-floor unit includes an eat-in kitchen and both units feature updated windows. The two-story garage provides storage, a half bath, and overhead door access. ALL units have separate utilities.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $169,900 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   This property offers a strong investment opportunity! Fully occupied property consisting of two residential units and one commercial unit. The first-floor unit offers two bedrooms, an eat-in kitchen, living room with decorative fireplace, and enclosed porch. The recently updated second-floor unit includes an eat-in kitchen and both units feature updated windows. The two-story garage provides storage, a half bath, and overhead door access. ALL units have separate utilities.

3. 2026-03-25
   listed $179,900 Active 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   This property offers a strong investment opportunity! Fully occupied property consisting of two residential units and one commercial unit. The first-floor unit offers two bedrooms, an eat-in kitchen, living room with decorative fireplace, and enclosed porch. The recently updated second-floor unit includes an eat-in kitchen and both units feature updated windows. The two-story garage provides storage, a half bath, and overhead door access. ALL units have separate utilities.

4. 2023-11-09
   soldstatus $140,000 Closed 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Fantastic investment opportunity! Two residential units and one commercial garage unit. First floor residential has 2 bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, living room with ornamental fireplace and enclosed front porch. Second floor residential has 1 bedroom and an eat-in kitchen. Both have newer windows. The garage is 2 stories for ample storage space with 1/2 bath on first floor, overhead door and is zoned commercial. All utilities are separate.

5. 2023-08-29
   status Pending 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Fantastic investment opportunity! Two residential units and one commercial garage unit. First floor residential has 2 bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, living room with ornamental fireplace and enclosed front porch. Second floor residential has 1 bedroom and an eat-in kitchen. Both have newer windows. The garage is 2 stories for ample storage space with 1/2 bath on first floor, overhead door and is zoned commercial. All utilities are separate.

6. 2023-08-14
   listed $149,900 Active 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Fantastic investment opportunity! Two residential units and one commercial garage unit. First floor residential has 2 bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, living room with ornamental fireplace and enclosed front porch. Second floor residential has 1 bedroom and an eat-in kitchen. Both have newer windows. The garage is 2 stories for ample storage space with 1/2 bath on first floor, overhead door and is zoned commercial. All utilities are separate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $2,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$659
• After-tax cash flow: $4,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, driveway, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major driveway — cracked and in need of repair
• Major landscaping — bare and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value
• Both repair and resurface driveway — improving the driveway would enhance curb appeal and increase property value
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — improving the landscaping would enhance curb appeal and increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
driveway · cracked and in need of repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · bare and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both repair and resurface driveway — improving the driveway would enhance curb appeal and increase property value ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — improving the landscaping would enhance curb appeal and increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,958
• Household income: $56,391
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.05%
• Current HPI: 250.759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $169,900 GEBOR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $179,900 GEBOR
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) $140,000 GEBOR
• 2023-08-29 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-08-14 Listed $149,900 GEBOR