39 Pinetop Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$669,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1957 9,583 sqft lot $236/sqft · 14% below area Est $666k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels
• Construction: Partially finished basement
• Exterior features: Brick, frame and vinyl siding exterior; Covered patio; Porch; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Quartz/Quartzite counters
• Bedrooms: Three or more levels (8 total rooms; includes first floor bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First floor bedroom; First floor full bath; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; In-law floorplan; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; Covered patio and porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $669k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($39/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $584k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $584k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($649k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $669k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $584,289 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,964
• List price: $669,000
• Delta: 0.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Huron Rd	0.61mi	4/5.0	2,733 (-4%)	3mo	$735,000	$269	57
8 Fleet Rd	0.40mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,950 (+4%)	8mo	$570,000	$193	57
42 Adobe Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,007 (+6%)	6mo	$690,000	$229	55
11 Roberts Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,500 (-12%)	5mo	$500,000	$200	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-108,118
• Equity at exit: $99,750

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-93,549
• Equity at exit: $57,843

Cash invested: $187,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,508
• Tax from tax record: −$826 /mo · $9,907/yr
• Insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,227
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,839

Max offer price $669,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $193	+0% $3	+5% $-186	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-228	+0% $3	+5% $234	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $173	base $3	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $167,250
• Closing costs: $20,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	0.71mi
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	25d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $669,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   status $669,000 Pending 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $669,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $669,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $669,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $669,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $669,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-04-30
   listed $669,000 Active 1126-char remark
9. 2026-04-29
   historical $669,000 1126-char remark
10. 2025-05-15
    soldstatus $350,000
11. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus $323,000 Closed 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

12. 2022-12-05
    status Pending 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

13. 2022-11-18
    price $323,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

14. 2022-10-20
    price $340,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

15. 2022-10-12
    price $342,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

16. 2022-08-09
    listed $360,000 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. 9 room cape with large EIK, LR, dining room, den or office, full bath and Studio accessory apartment with kitchenette, full bath all on first floor. Second floor has 3 BRs and 1/2 bath. Enclosed rear porch and 2 car attached garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,907 · $826/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,606 · $884/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,474
• − Property taxes: −$9,907
• − Insurance: −$3,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,609
• − Management: −$5,609
• − Depreciation: −$19,462
• Taxable loss: −$11,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,710
• After-tax cash flow: $2,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $669,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $669,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-28 Sold (MLS) $323,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $323,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $340,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-12 Price Changed $342,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $360,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,907 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.