514 John Arthur Rd · Cave Spring, VA 24065

$290,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1987 0.67 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• 9 parking spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 8 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1987
• Exterior features: 0.67-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump electric heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Storage; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (42.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Boones Mill Elementary (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 271 students, 75% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #94 of 342 statewide, top 28%, 1,397 students, 74% FRL); Franklin County High (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,904 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $290k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,358 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-72,062
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-95,456
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24065

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $220,893

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $290,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-21
   listed $290,000 Active
4. 2025-08-27
   soldstatus $165,000
5. 2025-08-26
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

6. 2025-07-29
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

7. 2025-07-10
   price $169,950 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

8. 2025-06-18
   status Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

9. 2025-04-28
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

10. 2025-04-22
    listed $175,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Explore this incredible opportunity! Nestled on just over half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers stunning views of the surrounding mountains. With a touch of TLC you can transform this into your ideal dream home and enjoy instant equity. All information is deemed reliable but should be verified by buyer or buyer's agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,518/yr (+$126/mo · 176.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,497

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.98%
• Current HPI: 177.7607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-05-21 Listed $290,000 MLSRV
• 2025-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-26 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MLSRV
• 2025-07-29 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $169,950 MLSRV
• 2025-06-18 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2025-04-28 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-04-22 Listed $175,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.