456 Saturn · Kingsland, TX 78639

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2013 0.32 ac lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $140k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 1,088 square feet of comfortable living on a . 32-acre lot. The open floor plan is accented by modern finish-outs, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new skirting around the home, creating a clean, updated feel throughout. Step outside to the covered back deck and enjoy peaceful Hill Country views, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Short-term rentals are allowed, making this an excellent investment or weekend getaway. The property also offers access to a private neighborhood park along the lake and is conveniently located near two golf courses. Just minutes from Lake LBJ, this home offers strong rental potential, scenic surroundings, and easy access to outdoor recreation.

Key facts

• Hill country views
• Covered back deck
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK
• HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• PRIVATE NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• ACCESS TO OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,900
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
456 Saturn	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,088 (0%)	1mo	$139,900	$129	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,297
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,091
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $140	+0% $101	+5% $61	+10% $21
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $52	+0% $101	+5% $149	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $136	base $101	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-04-13
    price $139,900 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 1,088 square feet of comfortable living on a . 32-acre lot. The open floor plan is accented by modern finish-outs, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new skirting around the home, creating a clean, updated feel throughout. Step outside to the covered back deck and enjoy peaceful Hill Country views, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Short-term rentals are allowed, making this an excellent investment or weekend getaway. The property also offers access to a private neighborhood park along the lake and is conveniently located near two golf courses. Just minutes from Lake LBJ, this home offers strong rental potential, scenic surroundings, and easy access to outdoor recreation.

12. 2026-02-05
    listed $149,900 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 1,088 square feet of comfortable living on a . 32-acre lot. The open floor plan is accented by modern finish-outs, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new skirting around the home, creating a clean, updated feel throughout. Step outside to the covered back deck and enjoy peaceful Hill Country views, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Short-term rentals are allowed, making this an excellent investment or weekend getaway. The property also offers access to a private neighborhood park along the lake and is conveniently located near two golf courses. Just minutes from Lake LBJ, this home offers strong rental potential, scenic surroundings, and easy access to outdoor recreation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,576/yr (+$131/mo · 160.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$277
• After-tax cash flow: $1,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #20293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsland, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 8,719
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $139,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $149,900 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $984 · +36.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.