404 Rhodes · Victoria, TX 77904

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 529 Days on market

Built 1957 0.49 ac lot $90/sqft · 26% below area Est $271k · 26% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• 0.49 acre lot
• Built 1957

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 529 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 529 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,404
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -26.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 Mead Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,999 (-10%)	0mo	$369,999	$185	69
501 Dundee St	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,343 (+5%)	1mo	$340,000	$145	61
501 Hathaway St	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,316 (+4%)	8mo	$300,000	$130	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,919
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,151
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77904

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $235	+0% $178	+5% $122	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $95	+0% $178	+5% $262	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $229	base $178	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Town Hall Ln Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$3,750	$1.85	44d	1	1.29mi
111 Lancelot St Unit 2 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$1,650	$0.79	44d	1	1.32mi
111 Lancelot St Unit 1 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	2092	$1,375	$0.66	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 529 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 528 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 527 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 526 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 525 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 523 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 522 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 520 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 519 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 518 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 517 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 513 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 512 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 511 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 510 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 509 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $199,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

18. 2025-06-03
    price $229,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

19. 2025-04-15
    price $239,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

20. 2025-01-07
    price $249,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

21. 2025-01-06
    listed $269,900 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

22. 2025-01-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great location central to shopping centers, groceries! This home has so much potential with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home has very spacious living areas and open concept. Bedrooms are large. Located on approximately 1/2 an acre with fenced back yard.

23. 2025-01-02
    status Active
24. 2024-12-31
    historical
25. 2024-12-18
    price $249,900
26. 2024-09-30
    price $259,900
27. 2024-08-02
    price $265,000
28. 2024-04-05
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $2,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,061
• Household income: $83,130
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1133.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 20% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.51%
• Current HPI: 142.2501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $229,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $239,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $249,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $269,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $249,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $259,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $265,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $269,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,425 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.