10430 Butte · Adelanto, CA 92301

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 7,192 sqft lot Est $374k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn Key. .. Newer (8 months old) 3Br/2Ba home in Adelanto. Low maintenance front and back yards. Warm fireplace in livingroom. Open Floor Plan, Vaulted Ceiling, Granite Kitchen Counters. Great Location. Call now for an appointment to see this very affordable home in the High Desert.

Key facts

• 7,192 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total units: 1; Assessments: unknown; Parcel number available
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry and single garage door; Driveway; 2 garage/parking spaces total
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Accessible doorways (32 inches or wider) and accessible parking
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer (sewer available); Cable connected
• Home design: One-story; Entry at front door; Entry level: 1; No ADU; No common walls; Zoning: R-1; Property condition: cosmetic repairs needed
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction with drywall interior walls; Concrete slab foundation; Year built source: public records
• Exterior features: Single-family house; Tile roof; Fence in average condition; No pool; Lot shape rectangular; Lot size reported from assessor's data; Property faces south; Has a view; Sidewalks nearby; Paved road frontage with city street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Range/stove hood; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater; Water heater unit; Eating areas: formal dining room and in living room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Shower-in-tub and exhaust fan(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Panel doors; Copper full plumbing; Double-pane windows; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Adelanto — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gus Franklin Jr. (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 549 students, 63% FRL); Mesa Linda Middle (775 students, 77% FRL); Adelanto High (2,223 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,740 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10456 Napa Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	2mo	$365,000	$280	78
10416 Stage Coach Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-6%)	5mo	$345,000	$278	75
17967 Kendall	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-4%)	3mo	$340,000	$269	75
17919 Juniper	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-4%)	1mo	$299,500	$237	75
10452 Kemper Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,265 (-4%)	5mo	$375,000	$296	71
10417 Mendicino Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-0%)	5mo	$365,000	$278	70
10419 Cimmeron Trail Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-14%)	4mo	$320,000	$284	68
10450 Cimmeron Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-14%)	5mo	$330,000	$293	67
10402 Cimmeron Trail Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-14%)	2mo	$340,000	$302	67
10400 Rodeo	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-14%)	5mo	$365,000	$324	62
10401 Buckboard Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-14%)	7mo	$330,000	$293	60
9919 Payne Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (+12%)	6mo	$368,000	$249	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $143,567
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $445,252
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,362/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $239,659

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-203	+0% $-285	+5% $-367	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-371	+0% $-285	+5% $-199	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-211	base $-285	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10415 Buckboard Cir Adelanto, CA	3.0	2.0	1126	$2,200	$1.95	0d	1	0.16mi
10231 Lawson Ave Adelanto, CA	4.0	2.0	1076	$1,995	$1.85	0d	1	0.49mi
17785 Carson Cir Adelanto, CA	3.0	1.0	912	$2,200	$2.41	0d	1	0.61mi
17785 Carson Cir Adelanto, CA	3.0	1.0	912	$2,150	$2.36	21d	1	0.61mi
11159 Chaparral Ave Unit A Adelanto, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,395	$1.58	0d	1	0.99mi
11388 Lee Ave Adelanto, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,540	$1.46	0d	1	1.22mi
18254 Madrone St Adelanto, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	5d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $290,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-05-24
   status Active
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $290,000 Active
4. 2026-04-09
   historical
5. 2026-04-01
   price $310,000
6. 2025-06-04
   listed $345,000 Active
7. 2006-11-06
   soldstatus $289,000 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Turn Key. .. Newer (8 months old) 3Br/2Ba home in Adelanto. Low maintenance front and back yards. Warm fireplace in livingroom. Open Floor Plan, Vaulted Ceiling, Granite Kitchen Counters. Great Location. Call now for an appointment to see this very affordable home in the High Desert.

8. 2006-11-06
   soldstatus $289,000

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Turn Key. .. Newer (8 months old) 3Br/2Ba home in Adelanto. Low maintenance front and back yards. Warm fireplace in livingroom. Open Floor Plan, Vaulted Ceiling, Granite Kitchen Counters. Great Location. Call now for an appointment to see this very affordable home in the High Desert.

9. 2006-10-31
   soldstatus $289,000
10. 2006-08-02
    listed $289,000
11. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus $1,600,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,362 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,362 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥99°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$4,362
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,051
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Adelanto

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1250
• US rank: #26338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adelanto, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 38,577
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-81.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $290,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $345,000 CRMLS
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-06 Sold (MLS) $289,000 CRMLS
• 2006-10-31 Sold (MLS) $289,000 CRMLS
• 2006-08-02 Listed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,362 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.