2314 Peaceful Valley Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1983 7,200 sqft lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Timber Lane subdivision. Featuring brand-new appliances, a new water heater, and a spacious covered patio, this home blends modern comfort with inviting outdoor living. Enjoy the generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearl M Hirsch El (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 647 students, 86% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,695
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23538 Canyon Lake Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-5%)	1mo	$109,000	$71	78
2330 Piddler Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-6%)	22mo	$259,500	$170	61
22831 Earlmist Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,563 (-4%)	2mo	$169,000	$108	57
1906 Naplechase Crest Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,739 (+7%)	19mo	$255,000	$147	53
2310 Cypresstree Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-6%)	2mo	$239,999	$158	52
23029 Apple Arbor Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+9%)	14mo	$229,000	$129	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,117
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-44,283
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,261/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $196	+0% $135	+5% $74	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $39	+0% $135	+5% $230	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $190	base $135	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,961	$0.88	1d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Pending 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Pending 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Pending 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Pending 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    status Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Discover this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Timber Lane subdivision. Featuring brand-new appliances, a new water heater, and a spacious covered patio, this home blends modern comfort with inviting outdoor living. Enjoy the generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining

15. 2026-04-28
    status Pending 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Discover this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Timber Lane subdivision. Featuring brand-new appliances, a new water heater, and a spacious covered patio, this home blends modern comfort with inviting outdoor living. Enjoy the generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining

16. 2026-04-07
    price $229,900 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Discover this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Timber Lane subdivision. Featuring brand-new appliances, a new water heater, and a spacious covered patio, this home blends modern comfort with inviting outdoor living. Enjoy the generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining

17. 2026-01-09
    listed $240,000 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Discover this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Timber Lane subdivision. Featuring brand-new appliances, a new water heater, and a spacious covered patio, this home blends modern comfort with inviting outdoor living. Enjoy the generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining

18. 2025-12-08
    historical
19. 2025-10-23
    status Active
20. 2025-10-19
    status Pending
21. 2025-09-05
    price $239,900
22. 2025-08-15
    price $245,000
23. 2025-07-23
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2025-07-21
    historical
25. 2025-07-08
    price $250,000
26. 2025-06-25
    price $259,900
27. 2025-05-30
    listed $265,000 Active
28. 2025-03-03
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2025-02-03
    status Pending
30. 2025-01-28
    status Option Pending
31. 2025-01-22
    status Active
32. 2025-01-21
    status Option Pending
33. 2024-12-24
    status Active
34. 2024-12-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show
35. 2024-12-13
    listed $169,000 Active
36. 2023-12-20
    historical
37. 2023-12-08
    listed
38. 2023-07-28
    historical
39. 2023-06-27
    historical
40. 2014-03-17
    soldstatus
41. 2009-04-02
    historical
42. 2008-04-01
    listed $74,151
43. 2007-12-01
    historical
44. 2006-12-01
    listed $104,192
45. 2005-01-13
    historical
46. 2004-09-15
    listed $98,500
47. 1995-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,261 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,261 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$6,261
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $2,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.4% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-20 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2023-07-28 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2014-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-01 Listed $74,151 HARMLS
• 2007-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listed $104,192 HARMLS
• 2005-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-09-15 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 1995-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,261 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.