29532 N 144th St · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$925,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2021 1.00 ac lot $302/sqft · 12% below area Est $1056k · 12% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The perfect blend of modern luxury and functionality, this home offers endless potential. Built in 2021, this virtually brand-new 3,066 SF home sits on a sprawling 1-acre lot, featuring 4 bedrooms, plus an office, 3.5 baths, and an open-concept design ideal for entertaining. The spacious kitchen and living area flow seamlessly to the covered back patio with mountain views, complete with an outdoor kitchen area. A full wrap-around driveway provides easy access throughout the property, while the standout attached climate-controlled RV garage with ample workshop space offers incredible flexibility for hobbies, storage, or workspace. Located on a paved road this blank-slate property is ready to

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Outdoor kitchen area
• Wrap-around driveway

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN AREA
• WRAP-AROUND DRIVEWAY
• AMPLE WORKSHOP SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces; 4 covered spaces; 4-car garage; RV access/parking and RV garage; Garage door opener; Extended-length garage; Over-height garage; Separate storage area; Temp-controlled space; Direct garage access; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank (septic in and connected); Water hauled
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Desert and mountain views
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Spray foam insulation; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; RV hookup; Partial fencing; East/West exposure; Natural desert backyard; Dirt front; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Ceiling fans; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry (walk-in); Primary bedroom with full bath and separate shower & tub; Family room fireplace; Dual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified vinyl-frame windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer/dryer hookups; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-713 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $799k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $594k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $594k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Horseshoe Trails Elementary School (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 433 students, 4% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($897k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $594,199 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,056,418
• List price: $925,000
• Delta: -12.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29705 N 141st Pl	0.25mi	4/3.0	3,238 (+6%)	0mo	$1,450,000	$448	71
29085 N 141st St	0.46mi	4/3.5	3,048 (-1%)	3mo	$1,280,000	$420	69
29714 N 140th St	0.53mi	4/4.0	3,020 (-2%)	3mo	$1,550,000	$513	66
29202 N 146th St	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,889 (-6%)	3mo	$835,000	$289	60
28815 N 145th Way	0.50mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,962 (-3%)	3mo	$1,639,000	$553	58
29707 N 138 Pl	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,226 (+5%)	2mo	$992,000	$308	47
14723 E Morning Vista Ln	0.52mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,272 (+7%)	8mo	$1,050,000	$321	47
29109 N 148th St	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,367 (+10%)	3mo	$1,550,000	$460	46
14346 E Gamble Ln	0.68mi	4/4.0	3,437 (+12%)	8mo	$2,000,000	$582	38
13952 E Barwick Dr	0.55mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,525 (+15%)	9mo	$1,150,000	$326	33
13929 E Barwick Dr	0.59mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,525 (+15%)	10mo	$1,125,646	$319	30
28505 N 146th St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,709 (-12%)	8mo	$850,000	$314	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-195,843
• Equity at exit: $137,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-231,138
• Equity at exit: $79,977

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,248
• Net cashflow: $-713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,845

Max offer price $798,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-452	+0% $-713	+5% $-975	+10% $-1,237
Rent	-10% $-1,183	-5% $-948	+0% $-713	+5% $-479	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-478	base $-713	+0.5pp $-953	+1.0pp $-1,197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14214 E Gamble Ln Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.0	3346	$20,000	$5.98	45d	1	0.72mi
14541 E Gamble Ln Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	5.0	4246	$5,995	$1.41	45d	1	0.77mi
14006 E Mark Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3072	$5,125	$1.67	9d	1	0.85mi
14006 E Mark Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3072	$5,125	$1.67	1d	1	0.85mi
14010 E Desert Vista Trl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3106	$5,500	$1.77	16d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $925,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $925,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $925,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $925,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $925,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $925,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $925,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $925,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $925,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $925,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $950,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $950,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $950,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $950,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $950,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $950,000 Active 764-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,105 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,049/yr (+$337/mo · 196.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,704
• − Management: −$5,704
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable loss: −$25,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $925,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $950,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.