324 Ranchers Cir · Bulverde, TX 78070

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1999 0.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Located in Oakland Estates

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Septic and city water
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Vinyl exterior; Composition roof; Approximately 27 years old; Located in Oakland Estates subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Composition roof; Pre-owned construction
• Exterior features: Street paved; City street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — 7 x 20
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level) — 10 x 20; Bedroom 2 — 8 x 20; Bedroom 3 — 6 x 12
• Flooring: Carpeting; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only — 5 x 10
• Heating & cooling: Other heating (see remarks); Other heating fuel (see remarks)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer and dryer connections; All window coverings remain; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 1.6% in Bulverde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#862 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Arlon R Seay El (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 467 students, 29% FRL); Smithson Valley H S (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,332 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.62%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $38,938
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $104,559
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $916	-5% $888	+0% $860	+5% $833	+10% $805
Rent	-10% $708	-5% $784	+0% $860	+5% $937	+10% $1,013
Rate	-1.0pp $910	-0.5pp $885	base $860	+0.5pp $835	+1.0pp $809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
395 Harmony Hills St Unit 710 Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	978	$1,542	$1.58	3d	1	1.29mi
1061 Spring Branch Rd Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,899	$1.32	5d	1	1.31mi
395 Harmony Hills St Unit 2212 Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	978	$1,550	$1.58	18d	1	1.34mi
395 Harmony Hills St Unit 3212 Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,866	$1.62	3d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $98,000 New
4. 1999-07-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $9,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $8,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bulverde

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #862
• US rank: #15528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bulverde, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 19,141
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-02 Listed $98,000 LERA
• 1999-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,357 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.