1438 W 36th St · Erie, PA 16508

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1957 8,146 sqft lot Est $161k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold As-Is. .. Calling all Investor's, Flippers or Handymen. .. Home is in good shape just dated and needs some TLC. Solid Brick Ranch in a great SW Erie location and situated on a wonderful City Lot! Nice Floor Plan, Spacious Living Room w/ Pellet Stove & Built-ins, Gracious size Dining Room with Built-ins, 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath on First Floor, Partially Finished Basement with Game Room w/ Bar & Half Bath(needs TLC) contract neg. .

Key facts

• Pellet stove
• Solid brick ranch
• Spacious living room

Tags

• SOLID BRICK RANCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• PELLET STOVE
• BUILT-INS
• GRACIOUS SIZE DINING ROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Fixer condition; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pellet stove fireplace; Finished full basement; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,196
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1445 W 34th St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,364 (-4%)	0mo	$192,000	$141	88
1219 W 32nd St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,393 (-2%)	2mo	$117,500	$84	80
3813 Washington Ave	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,467 (+4%)	3mo	$182,500	$124	69
1326 W 30th St	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,464 (+4%)	2mo	$160,000	$109	69
1143 W 31st St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$135	66
1204 W 31st St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-15%)	3mo	$138,000	$114	55
1145 W 25th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-7%)	2mo	$130,000	$98	53
918 W 35th St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,290 (-9%)	4mo	$142,000	$110	52
2514 Raspberry St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,299 (-8%)	4mo	$100,000	$77	49
1021 W 29th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-11%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	47
1229 Brown Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-12%)	2mo	$51,500	$41	45
1517 W 44th St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (-14%)	1mo	$256,000	$211	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-8,904
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-28
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16508

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $112	+0% $87	+5% $61	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $41	+0% $87	+5% $133	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $110	base $87	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	0.60mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	0.78mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.91mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.15mi
1540 W 54th St Unit 156104 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,425	$1.50	44d	1	1.23mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,898 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,898 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,958
• Household income: $56,391
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.05%
• Current HPI: 250.759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $90,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,898 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.