26744 N 53rd Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$368,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2009 2,100 sqft lot $282/sqft · 6% below area Est $390k · 6% under $258/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Open great room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALNUT-FINISH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size recorded from assessor; Building area source: assessor
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fees; Association fees billed quarterly (amounts vary); Association maintains grounds and front yard; No visible trucks, trailers, RVs, or boats allowed; Community pool, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Direct garage access; Shared driveway / common parking
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof; Block fencing
• Exterior features: Private yard; Desert front landscaping; City-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (3 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Upstairs layout; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $368k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Inspiration Mountain School (486 students, 10% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $222k; list at $368k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,282 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,785
• List price: $368,000
• Delta: -5.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26678 N Babbling Brook Dr	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,307 (+0%)	12mo	$347,500	$266	85
26733 N 53rd Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,306 (0%)	15mo	$375,000	$287	84
5332 W Molly Ln	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,306 (0%)	19mo	$360,000	$276	78
5409 W Straight Arrow Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+7%)	1mo	$478,000	$342	61
26521 N Babbling Brook Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,469 (+12%)	12mo	$418,000	$285	55
26410 N Babbling Brook Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,469 (+12%)	19mo	$410,850	$280	48
25913 N 53rd Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,493 (+14%)	9mo	$390,000	$261	41
26015 N 53rd Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,493 (+14%)	14mo	$395,000	$265	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $156,775
• Equity at exit: $331,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $491,489
• Equity at exit: $714,943

Cash invested: $103,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,930
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,557/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $251,476

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-451	-5% $-555	+0% $-660	+5% $-764	+10% $-868
Rent	-10% $-841	-5% $-750	+0% $-660	+5% $-569	+10% $-478
Rate	-1.0pp $-474	-0.5pp $-566	base $-660	+0.5pp $-755	+1.0pp $-852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,000
• Closing costs: $11,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26733 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$4,000	$3.06	45d	1	0.04mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	9d	1	0.04mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	26d	1	0.08mi
26616 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.10mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	9d	1	0.13mi
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	1d	1	0.36mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	16d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $258 · $3,096/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $368,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $368,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $368,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $368,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $368,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $368,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $368,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $368,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $368,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $368,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $368,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $368,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $368,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $368,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $368,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $368,000 749-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $375,000 Active 749-char remark
18. 2018-10-31
    soldstatus $222,000 Closed 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

19. 2018-10-30
    soldstatus $222,000
20. 2018-10-04
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

21. 2018-09-26
    status Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

22. 2018-09-11
    historical 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

23. 2018-08-22
    listed $222,000 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Stetson Valley. Inviting great room with vaulted ceilings open to kitchen. Upgraded kitchen with staggered cherry cabinets, granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, decorative back splash, and eat-in kitchen. Sliding glass door exits to private backyard. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet. Master bath has dual sinks. Ceiling fans throughout, window blinds throughout. Neutral paint. Tile in all the right places. 2 car garage. Fantastic community with parks, community pool, walking trails & hiking!

24. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus $212,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Fantastic Stetson Valley 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathroom two story home is move in ready. Soaring high ceilings in the living and dining area. Large eat-in kitchen open to the great room features stainless steel appliances, granite counters, custom back splash, cherry cabinets, and ample counter space. Kitchen overlooks great room and is perfect for holidays & get togethers. Great size upstairs master suite enjoys large walk-in closet. Nice sized two car garage with storage racks. The home is minutes from hiking and mountain biking at Deem Hills Recreation Area and the I-17. Walking distance to the community pool and playground. Great home, wonderful community, come see today.*Buyer to verify all measurements, square footage, figures, schools, school districts, all information, location and area*

25. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus $212,000

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Fantastic Stetson Valley 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathroom two story home is move in ready. Soaring high ceilings in the living and dining area. Large eat-in kitchen open to the great room features stainless steel appliances, granite counters, custom back splash, cherry cabinets, and ample counter space. Kitchen overlooks great room and is perfect for holidays & get togethers. Great size upstairs master suite enjoys large walk-in closet. Nice sized two car garage with storage racks. The home is minutes from hiking and mountain biking at Deem Hills Recreation Area and the I-17. Walking distance to the community pool and playground. Great home, wonderful community, come see today.*Buyer to verify all measurements, square footage, figures, schools, school districts, all information, location and area*

26. 2018-03-09
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Fantastic Stetson Valley 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathroom two story home is move in ready. Soaring high ceilings in the living and dining area. Large eat-in kitchen open to the great room features stainless steel appliances, granite counters, custom back splash, cherry cabinets, and ample counter space. Kitchen overlooks great room and is perfect for holidays & get togethers. Great size upstairs master suite enjoys large walk-in closet. Nice sized two car garage with storage racks. The home is minutes from hiking and mountain biking at Deem Hills Recreation Area and the I-17. Walking distance to the community pool and playground. Great home, wonderful community, come see today.*Buyer to verify all measurements, square footage, figures, schools, school districts, all information, location and area*

27. 2018-02-28
    listed $213,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Fantastic Stetson Valley 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathroom two story home is move in ready. Soaring high ceilings in the living and dining area. Large eat-in kitchen open to the great room features stainless steel appliances, granite counters, custom back splash, cherry cabinets, and ample counter space. Kitchen overlooks great room and is perfect for holidays & get togethers. Great size upstairs master suite enjoys large walk-in closet. Nice sized two car garage with storage racks. The home is minutes from hiking and mountain biking at Deem Hills Recreation Area and the I-17. Walking distance to the community pool and playground. Great home, wonderful community, come see today.*Buyer to verify all measurements, square footage, figures, schools, school districts, all information, location and area*

28. 2010-10-26
    soldstatus $149,000 Closed
29. 2010-06-21
    status Pending
30. 2010-04-09
    price $149,000
31. 2009-12-31
    listed $162,000 Active
32. 2009-12-23
    historical
33. 2009-02-26
    listed $172,372

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,557 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,429 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$871/yr (+$73/mo · 56.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,614
• − Property taxes: −$1,557
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$10,705
• Taxable loss: −$14,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,528
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+113.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $368,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2018-10-31 Sold (MLS) $222,000 ARMLS
• 2018-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-09-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-09-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-08-22 Listed $222,000 ARMLS
• 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-12 Sold (MLS) $212,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-09 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listed $213,500 ARMLS
• 2010-10-26 Sold (MLS) $149,000 ARMLS
• 2010-06-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-04-09 Price Changed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2009-12-31 Listed $162,000 ARMLS
• 2009-12-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-02-26 Listed $172,372 ARMLS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,557 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.