7 Willow Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Land · 258 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFUL BRAND-NEW Custom home. Pictures are of a Model Home and not the actual home. Block with stucco 3 bedroom, 2 bath with attached 2 car garage. Beautiful cabinets and granite countertops accent the gorgeous kitchen. Appliances include (Refrigerator, Range with hood , Microwave and Dishwasher). Walk-in closet in Master. High Efficiency windows.

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Custom home
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,303 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $41,171
• Equity at exit: $181,009

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $140,871
• Equity at exit: $327,190

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $207,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-471	+0% $-571	+5% $-671	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-714	-5% $-643	+0% $-571	+5% $-500	+10% $-428
Rate	-1.0pp $-425	-0.5pp $-497	base $-571	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Pine Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,725	$1.19	15d	1	0.21mi
139 Pine Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,645	$1.18	15d	1	0.37mi
2 Dogwood Drive Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$2,099	$1.31	22d	1	0.39mi
88 Dogwood Drive Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,600	$0.96	22d	1	0.41mi
3 Pine Circle Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,700	$1.02	22d	1	0.41mi
21 Dogwood Drive Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,595	$1.15	22d	1	0.48mi
6 Cedar Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	22d	1	0.58mi
57 Pine Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	15d	1	0.61mi
11 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,725	$1.27	22d	1	0.66mi
98 Dogwood Drive Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,695	$1.27	22d	1	0.66mi
23 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,650	$1.18	22d	1	0.71mi
28 Poplar Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,650	$1.12	15d	1	0.83mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	15d	1	0.89mi
50 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,795	$1.39	15d	1	0.95mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	15d	1	0.95mi
123 Juniper Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.26mi
7 Juniper Pass Way Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	22d	1	1.30mi
10 Juniper Trl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,875	$1.16	15d	1	1.42mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	22d	1	1.42mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	15d	1	1.43mi
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	22d	1	1.47mi
15 Juniper Pass Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	15d	1	1.48mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-07
   listed $289,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$12,195
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $290 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.