3422 Club Rancho Dr · Palmdale, CA 93551

$650,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2003 6,356 sqft lot Est $736k · 12% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY HOME WITH INCREDIBLE POTENTIAL Located in the desirable Rancho Vista Golf Course community of West Palmdale, this spacious 6-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home offers an exceptional opportunity to create your dream home in one of the area’s most sought-after neighborhoods. Situated directly across the street from the 18 hole Rancho Vista Golf Club Resort, this home enjoys beautiful community surroundings and a prime location near shopping, dining, parks and top-rated schools. As you approach, you’re welcomed by an inviting layout with generous living spaces designed for both comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The home features soaring ceilings, expans

Key facts

• 6,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size source: assessor's data; Parcel number available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-family house; 2 stories; Entry at main level; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built (per assessor); No common walls
• Exterior features: House; No pool; Lot approximately 0-1 unit/acre; Curb and sidewalk

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Two levels; Main-level entry; Main level has 2 bathrooms; Main level has 2 bedrooms; Family room; Den; Has fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,585/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $630,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $735,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40637 Pinina Ct	0.04mi	6/4.0	3,341 (+1%)	1mo	$810,870	$243	95
40741 Oakmont Ct	0.23mi	6/4.0	3,482 (+6%)	2mo	$750,000	$215	78
3539 Tamarisk Dr	0.23mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,256 (-1%)	10mo	$665,000	$204	70
40333 Preston Rd	0.47mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,256 (-1%)	2mo	$650,000	$200	65
3721 Club Rancho Dr	0.32mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,032 (-8%)	2mo	$687,000	$227	64
4011 Prestwick Ln	0.60mi	6/3.0	3,219 (-2%)	1mo	$719,000	$223	63
40209 Chelsea Ct	0.60mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,054 (-8%)	9mo	$632,000	$207	45
3700 Parkridge Ln	0.72mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,054 (-8%)	4mo	$575,000	$188	44
40247 Preston Rd	0.59mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,883 (-13%)	1mo	$729,750	$253	41
40271 Crestridge	0.53mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,883 (-13%)	5mo	$590,000	$205	41
40225 Watford Way	0.58mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,863 (-13%)	9mo	$641,000	$224	38
3539 Parkmeadow Ct	0.67mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,863 (-13%)	4mo	$690,000	$241	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-59,298
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-5,115
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$727 /mo · $8,723/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,383
• Net cashflow: $795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,578

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3423 Racquet Ln Palmdale, CA	5.0	3.0	2944	$7,500	$2.55	1d	1	0.20mi
4138 Club Vista Dr Palmdale, CA	5.0	4.0	3146	$7,500	$2.38	1d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $650,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $675,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $675,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $675,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $675,000
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,723 · $727/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,723 · $727/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥99°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$8,723
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,321
• − Management: −$6,321
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $9,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $675,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $750,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,723 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.