11616 N Saguaro Blvd #3 · Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$329,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · Condo public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2000 $262/sqft · 8% below area Est $359k · 8% under $330/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large private 2-bed, 2-bath condo with hand-scraped wood floors, tile, and an open, bright layout. Cozy upgraded kitchen features beautiful maple cabinetry, tiled countertops, pass-through, eat-in area, plus separate dining room. Rare 2 patio balconies, including one extra-large and private, with spectacular mountain and city light views and stunning sunrises and sunsets. Double-pane patio doors and windows. Full-size garage with opener, workbench, and cabinets. All appliances included. Low HOA, low maintenance, and home warranty. Close to Fountain Hills Lake and Park, restaurants, shopping, and golf. Ideal as a full-time home, winter retreat, vacation home, or rental.

Key facts

• $330 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $192k; list at $330k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,210
• List price: $329,500
• Delta: -8.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-46,459
• Equity at exit: $49,130

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-47,500
• Equity at exit: $28,489

Cash invested: $92,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85268

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,728
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $703/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$330
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,853

Max offer price $329,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,375
• Closing costs: $9,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11725 N Desert Vis #109 Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.5	1828	$6,000	$3.28	43d	1	0.18mi
17343 E Quail Ridge Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1323	$5,000	$3.78	43d	1	0.36mi
12237 N Gambel Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,590	$1.83	24d	1	0.43mi
111652 N Saguaro Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,299	$1.53	43d	1	0.44mi
12050 N Panorama Dr #208 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1399	$2,430	$1.74	43d	1	0.50mi
12034 N Saguaro Blvd #201 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1597	$2,095	$1.31	5d	1	0.59mi
10401 N Saguaro Blvd #235 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	43d	1	0.64mi
10401 N Saguaro Blvd #220 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	21d	1	0.64mi
10401 N Saguaro Blvd #135 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$3,300	$3.33	43d	1	0.64mi
16812 E Lamplighter Way #10 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1393	$4,200	$3.02	43d	1	0.70mi
12438 N Saguaro Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,095	$1.18	24d	2	0.80mi
16724 E Gunsight Dr #219 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	1.5	1017	$2,595	$2.55	5d	1	0.84mi
16800 E El Lago Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$3,350	$2.49	5d	2	0.90mi
16715 E El Lago Blvd #214 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,700	$1.57	24d	1	0.92mi
16800 E El Lago Blvd #2057 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$4,500	$3.34	24d	1	0.95mi
12213 N Chama Dr Unit 2 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,999	$2.40	43d	1	0.99mi
12213 N Chama Dr Unit 2 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	5d	1	0.99mi
16631 E El Lago Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,774	$1.64	24d	2	1.03mi
16725 E Avenue of the Fountains Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1192	$2,199	$1.84	2d	1	1.12mi
16725 E Avenue of the Fountains Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1192	$2,240	$1.88	43d	1	1.12mi
16453 E Segundo Dr Unit 2 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	1.0	945	$4,900	$5.19	43d	1	1.14mi
16453 E Segundo Dr Unit 1 Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1414	$5,900	$4.17	43d	1	1.14mi
13507 N Vista del Lago Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$5,800	$4.18	43d	1	1.22mi
17422 E Flat Rock Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	21d	1	1.25mi
16525 E Avenue of the Fountains #116 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,575	$1.32	23d	1	1.28mi
16715 E Parkview Ave Unit 201 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	4d	1	1.29mi
16912 E La Montana Dr Unit D124 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$3,500	$3.55	43d	1	1.37mi
13607 N Hamilton Dr Unit A18 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$2,699	$2.73	43d	1	1.39mi
13624 N Saguaro Blvd Unit B118 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	24d	1	1.40mi
13636 N Saguaro Blvd #103 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	912	$2,800	$3.07	43d	1	1.42mi
16550 E Avenue of the Fountains Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$2,440	$2.72	3d	8	1.43mi
13616 N Hamilton Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1795	$2,400	$1.34	24d	1	1.45mi
13616 N Hamilton Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,400	$1.36	43d	1	1.45mi
13804 N Saguaro Blvd #211 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1032	$3,000	$2.91	43d	1	1.46mi
9253 N Firebrick Dr #114 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,950	$1.83	43d	1	1.48mi
13606 N Cambria Dr #208 Fountain Hills, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$4,500	$2.96	43d	1	1.48mi
13606 N Cambria Dr Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1534	$4,000	$2.61	3d	2	1.48mi
17247 E Grande Blvd #8 Fountain Hills, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$4,000	$2.67	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $330 · $3,960/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,500 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,500 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,500 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,500 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,500 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,500 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,500 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,500 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,500 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,500 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $334,500 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Large private 2-bed, 2-bath condo with hand-scraped wood floors, tile, and an open, bright layout. Cozy upgraded kitchen features beautiful maple cabinetry, tiled countertops, pass-through, eat-in area, plus separate dining room. Rare 2 patio balconies, including one extra-large and private, with spectacular mountain and city light views and stunning sunrises and sunsets. Double-pane patio doors and windows. Full-size garage with opener, workbench, and cabinets. All appliances included. Low HOA, low maintenance, and home warranty. Close to Fountain Hills Lake and Park, restaurants, shopping, and golf. Ideal as a full-time home, winter retreat, vacation home, or rental.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $337,000 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Large private 2-bed, 2-bath condo with hand-scraped wood floors, tile, and an open, bright layout. Cozy upgraded kitchen features beautiful maple cabinetry, tiled countertops, pass-through, eat-in area, plus separate dining room. Rare 2 patio balconies, including one extra-large and private, with spectacular mountain and city light views and stunning sunrises and sunsets. Double-pane patio doors and windows. Full-size garage with opener, workbench, and cabinets. All appliances included. Low HOA, low maintenance, and home warranty. Close to Fountain Hills Lake and Park, restaurants, shopping, and golf. Ideal as a full-time home, winter retreat, vacation home, or rental.

17. 2024-01-14
    historical $1,800
18. 2023-12-05
    price $1,800
19. 2023-11-16
    listed $1,975
20. 2023-09-09
    status Active
21. 2023-09-02
    status Pending
22. 2023-09-02
    historical
23. 2023-07-05
    status Active
24. 2023-06-26
    status Pending
25. 2023-04-14
    price $349,999
26. 2023-04-14
    price $359,999
27. 2023-03-01
    price $360,000
28. 2022-12-28
    listed $375,000 Active
29. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus $192,500 Closed
30. 2019-07-30
    status Pending
31. 2019-07-20
    price $195,000
32. 2019-06-28
    listed $200,000 Active
33. 2018-12-18
    soldstatus $194,900
34. 2017-11-27
    historical
35. 2017-11-14
    status Active
36. 2017-10-24
    status Pending
37. 2016-12-27
    price $169,000
38. 2016-10-18
    listed $172,000 Active
39. 2005-10-26
    soldstatus $255,000
40. 2005-10-20
    historical
41. 2005-05-31
    listed $269,000
42. 2005-05-12
    soldstatus $200,000
43. 2005-04-20
    historical
44. 2005-04-05
    listed $200,000
45. 2002-04-30
    historical
46. 2002-04-29
    listed $119,900
47. 2002-04-29
    historical
48. 2002-03-01
    listed $119,900
49. 2002-03-01
    historical
50. 2002-01-28
    listed $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $703 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,472/yr (+$123/mo · 209.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,457
• − Property taxes: −$703
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,986
• − Management: −$2,986
• − HOA: −$3,960
• − Depreciation: −$9,585
• Taxable loss: −$3,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $3,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fountain Hills Unified District (4247)
• NCES district ID: 0403040
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,038
• Composite: 36.41/100
• National rank: #4677
• State rank: #61 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fountain Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #8769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fountain Hills, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 23,849
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,849
• Household income: $112,795
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 374.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.81%
• Current HPI: 283.4064
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+170.9% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $334,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $337,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-14 Rental Removed $1,800 ARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $1,800 ARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,975 ARMLS
• 2023-09-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-07-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-06-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $349,999 ARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $359,999 ARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-28 Listed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) $192,500 ARMLS
• 2019-07-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-07-20 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-28 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2018-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $194,900 Public Records
• 2017-11-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-11-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-10-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2016-12-27 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2016-10-18 Listed $172,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-05-31 Listed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-12 Sold (MLS) $200,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-04-05 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2002-04-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-04-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-04-29 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2002-03-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-03-01 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2002-01-28 Listed $128,000 ARMLS
• 2001-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-10-26 Listed $123,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $703 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.