6218 Square Lake Dr · Kimball, MI 48074

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 2002 $67/sqft · 22% below area Est $134k · 22% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your lakefront retreat! This charming manufactured home, nestled within a serene community, offers the perfect blend of comfort and scenic beauty. The home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, fireplace, with a spacious layout. Enjoy your morning coffee on your deck overlooking the lake taking in the beautiful view. Buyer must have park approval. Measurements are estimated.

Key facts

• Lakefront retreat
• Beautiful view
• Built 2002

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RETREAT
• DECK OVERLOOKING THE LAKE
• BEAUTIFUL VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential; Located south of Lapeer and west of Wadhams
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Subdivision: THE LAKES; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); On the lake / lakefront property; Private maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, oven, refrigerator and range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Oven, Refrigerator, Range; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Port Huron Area School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #368 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,801
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -21.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,834
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $15,843
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48074

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $259	+0% $222	+5% $186	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $175	+0% $222	+5% $270	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $249	base $222	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5584 Lapeer Rd Unit D-2 Smiths Creek, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	0d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Welcome to your lakefront retreat! This charming manufactured home, nestled within a serene community, offers the perfect blend of comfort and scenic beauty. The home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, fireplace, with a spacious layout. Enjoy your morning coffee on your deck overlooking the lake taking in the beautiful view. Buyer must have park approval. Measurements are estimated.

11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $110,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Welcome to your lakefront retreat! This charming manufactured home, nestled within a serene community, offers the perfect blend of comfort and scenic beauty. The home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, fireplace, with a spacious layout. Enjoy your morning coffee on your deck overlooking the lake taking in the beautiful view. Buyer must have park approval. Measurements are estimated.

16. 2026-05-15
    listed $110,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Welcome to your lakefront retreat! This charming manufactured home, nestled within a serene community, offers the perfect blend of comfort and scenic beauty. The home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, fireplace, with a spacious layout. Enjoy your morning coffee on your deck overlooking the lake taking in the beautiful view. Buyer must have park approval. Measurements are estimated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $2,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Huron Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2628830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,093
• Composite: 25.4/100
• National rank: #7462
• State rank: #368 of 540 in MI

Livability — Kimball

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,617

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.46%
• Current HPI: 185.633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $117 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.