10826 NW Moon Rise Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$425,300

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,458 sqft · Land · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 5,200 sqft lot $300/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxurious owner's suite, surrounding a versatile loft space. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 5,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (breed restrictions and number limit)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, dog park, playground, pool, and pickleball courts; HOA fee $300 monthly (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Entry level: 1; North-facing
• Construction: Concrete/CBS construction; Shingle roof; Built by Lennar (Jefferson model); Under construction
• Exterior features: No waterfront; None waterfront features

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windmill Point Elementary School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 1,006 students, 68% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,361 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-88,926
• Equity at exit: $63,414

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-105,188
• Equity at exit: $36,772

Cash invested: $119,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,230
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,128/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,757

Max offer price $371,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-183	+0% $-303	+5% $-423	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-436	+0% $-303	+5% $-170	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-195	base $-303	+0.5pp $-413	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,325
• Closing costs: $12,759
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10802 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.03mi
10793 NW Everbreeze Dr Port St. Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.04mi
10722 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$3,190	$1.37	25d	1	0.08mi
10875 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	5.0	3.5	2451	$2,900	$1.18	15d	1	0.09mi
5892 NW Sweetwood Dr Port St Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	23d	1	0.21mi
5944 NW Mangrove Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$3,000	$1.22	25d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $425,300
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $429,300 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,530 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$34/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,823
• − Property taxes: −$3,128
• − Insurance: −$2,126
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,239
• − Management: −$3,239
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$12,372
• Taxable loss: −$11,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $425,300 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $429,300 Beaches MLS