20116 Pecan Trace Dr · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $212k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom/2 bath home in Pecan Trace in need of repair. Owner carefully gutted property after a flood from the laundry area. this home is clean and ready to be put back together. Possible short sale

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 2017

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,090
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20095 Pecan Trce	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+1%)	0mo	$218,000	$170	96
40222 Pecan Allee St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	5mo	$199,000	$158	91
40190 Pecan Allee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	2mo	$216,000	$173	91
40183 Pecan Allee Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,259 (-1%)	2mo	$210,750	$167	90
40214 Pecan Allee Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-0%)	23mo	$200,000	$158	77
20014 Pecan Trace Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-3%)	14mo	$212,000	$171	76
20006 Pecan Trace Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+2%)	18mo	$216,000	$166	72
40205 Olde Mill Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+15%)	7mo	$250,000	$171	56
40178 Saucier Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+2%)	16mo	$58,000	$45	49
40311 Saucier Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-3%)	15mo	$175,266	$142	48
39454 Ridgedell Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,097 (-14%)	20mo	$185,000	$169	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,508
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $51,273
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39676 Gayle Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,700	$0.94	44d	1	0.84mi
21176 Brighton Cove Dr Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1705	$2,000	$1.17	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2025-03-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-07
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2025-03-07
   listed $130,000
4. 2024-09-17
   listed $150,000
5. 2023-09-25
   soldstatus Sold
6. 2023-09-25
   soldstatus $206,000
7. 2023-08-24
   historical
8. 2023-08-21
   listed $200,000 Active
9. 2023-08-21
   listed $200,000
10. 2016-05-04
    soldstatus Sold
11. 2016-05-04
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
12. 2016-05-04
    soldstatus $135,000
13. 2016-04-12
    status Pending
14. 2016-03-22
    historical Pending Continue to Show
15. 2016-02-24
    listed $136,900 Active
16. 2016-02-22
    listed $136,900 Active
17. 2016-02-22
    listed $136,900
18. 2016-02-22
    listed $136,900
19. 2009-03-20
    soldstatus $135,900
20. 2009-01-13
    listed $135,900
21. 2009-01-13
    listed $135,900
22. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus $27,000
23. 2008-01-06
    listed $29,900
24. 2008-01-06
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,242 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $6,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $6,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+334.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-07 Pending — GSREIN
• 2025-03-07 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $130,000 GSREIN
• 2024-09-17 Listed $150,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-25 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2023-08-24 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $200,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $200,000 GBRMLS
• 2016-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-04 Sold (MLS) $135,000 GSREIN
• 2016-05-04 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-04-12 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2016-03-22 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2016-02-24 Listed $136,900 GBRMLS
• 2016-02-22 Listed $136,900 GSREIN
• 2016-02-22 Listed $136,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-02-22 Listed $136,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-03-20 Sold (MLS) $135,900 GSREIN
• 2009-01-13 Listed $135,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-01-13 Listed $135,900 GSREIN
• 2008-06-30 Sold (MLS) $27,000 GSREIN
• 2008-01-06 Listed $29,900 GSREIN
• 2008-01-06 Listed $29,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.