21940 Strickland Ln · Cleveland, TX 77328

$134,993

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2010 0.93 ac lot $159/sqft · 32% below area Est $197k · 32% under ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wood cabin on nearly 1 beautiful acre in the highly sought after Splendora ISD with tons of potential—expand or build your dream home! Features a front porch, spacious rooms, metal roof, and one-car carport. Property is fully fenced and cross-fenced with double gates and two driveways. Includes a large 1000 sq ft workshop with a lean to, needing TLC. Never flooded. Extra utilities in place on the right side (water, septic, electric), plus electric to the front yard/fence. Well redone in 2024 and water heater replaced in 2022. Hot tub present but needs a new pump. sold as-is, where-is. Seller will remove items from garage and old cars/trucks on the property, but there may be some items

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Fully fenced
• Front porch

Tags

• WOOD CABIN
• FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• ONE CAR CARPORT
• FULLY FENCED
• CROSS FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space); Detached oversized garage with workshop (1 garage space)
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 2010; Wood siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Porch; Cleared lot; Workshop structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Kitchen/Family room combo; Kitchen/Dining combo; Laminate counters; No fireplaces; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,510 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,310
• List price: $134,993
• Delta: -31.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-28,098
• Equity at exit: $20,128

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-32,261
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,798 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,230/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $117,510

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-61	+0% $-99	+5% $-137	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-146	+0% $-99	+5% $-52	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-65	base $-99	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,748
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,993 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,993 Pending 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,993 Pending 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,993 Pending 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,993 Pending 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $134,993 Pending 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,993 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,993 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,993 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,993 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $134,993 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,993 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,993 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,993 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,993 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $139,993 Active 923-char remark
17. 1997-02-01
    soldstatus
18. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,230
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $-354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $134,993 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $139,993 HARMLS
• 1997-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,230 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.