4617 W Bellarose Rd · Tallahassee, FL 32305

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 954 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1983 0.40 ac lot Est $89k · 24% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Warm and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring recent updates including a new roof, updated flooring, AC, and fresh paint throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wood porch and deck—perfect for family gatherings, relaxing evenings, or playtime. Two large storage sheds provide ample space for bikes, toys, and outdoor equipment, making this home both comfortable and practical for everyday living.

Key facts

• Large storage sheds
• Large wood porch
• Updated flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE WOOD PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.4 acre (dimensions 110x65x65)
• Financial info: Offered for sale
• HOA & community: Street lights in community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story modular/prefab home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Modular/Prefab construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Partial fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom measuring 10x11; Additional room measuring 12x11
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Family room; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 419 students, 82% FRL); R. Frank Nims Middle School (math 20% / reading 24%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 609 students, 82% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 45% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.05%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,722
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1425 Breck Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+10%)	23mo	$97,500	$93	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,990
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $14,333
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32305

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $248	+0% $217	+5% $186	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $169	+0% $217	+5% $265	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $245	base $217	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5015 Oleander Dr Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	15d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $109,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $109,900
18. 2026-03-05
    status Active
19. 2026-02-24
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-01-26
    price $119,900
21. 2026-01-02
    listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$214
• After-tax cash flow: $2,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,384
• Household income: $48,045
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 654.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 218.4834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $109,900 CATRS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-02-24 Contingent — CATRS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $119,900 CATRS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $134,900 CATRS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +64.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.