44 Tangelo Dr · Lake Hamilton, FL 33844

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,486 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1974 9,374 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special!!! Looking for a project? This 3-bedroom, 2.5 -bath home is your chance to make something great. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this into your dream home or a profitable investment. Seller motivated!!!

Key facts

• 9,374 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-3
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Property is homesteaded
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 parking spaces
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; No sewer listed; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built on a 0.22-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $190k implies a 890% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,987
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,690
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,143/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $458	+0% $404	+5% $351	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $317	+0% $404	+5% $492	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $453	base $404	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	16d	1	0.45mi
2728 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,900	$1.01	25d	1	0.46mi
304 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	16d	1	0.46mi
2451 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	25d	1	0.50mi
4058 Gardenia Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,995	$1.24	25d	1	0.68mi
3857 Geranium Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,050	$0.99	25d	1	0.68mi
4520 Ranunculus St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2290	$2,300	$1.00	16d	1	0.77mi
4904 Bluebell Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2840	$2,700	$0.95	25d	1	0.79mi
4434 Petunia ST Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,350	$1.11	12d	1	0.79mi
2748 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	16d	1	0.95mi
2744 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,250	$1.32	4d	1	0.95mi
1712 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,000	$1.23	25d	1	1.30mi
1728 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,400	$1.30	25d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    price $190,000
16. 2025-09-08
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 1974-07-01
    soldstatus $19,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,143
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $4,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #11293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 1,109
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+889.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1974-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,143 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.